The Phoenix Suns and Minnesota Timberwolves kick a marquee first-round series on Saturday.

The pregame narrative: Phoenix has had Minnesota's number this year and I expect the Suns to cover an alternate spread in Game 1. On the prop market, I'm fading Anthony Edwards who has struggled against this group in the past.

Check out the full Suns vs. Timberwolves SGP picks for Game 1 of their first-round matchup on April 20.

Suns vs. Timberwolves SGP picks

Parlay: Suns +7.5 + Edwards under 25.5 points + Over 209.5 points (+325)

Suns +7.5 (-295): Let's set the table for this matchup.

The No. 3 seeded T-Wolves (56-26) won 50-plus games for the first time in two decades. They had seven more wins than the Suns (49-33) but went 0-3 against them, losing each game by double-digits.

We got to see a high-stakes preview of this series just a week ago when Minnesota still had a shot of clinching the conference's top seed.

The Suns walked into Minnesota and routed their counterparts, 125-106, in a game which was never really close.

Do I expect another blowout tonight? No. But I do think Phoenix will at least cover this generous alternate spread.

The Suns have a 52-28 record all-time with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker in the lineup (playoffs included) and have covered this number in 32 of 42 games together since the new year (76.1%).

Other parlay picks

Edwards under 25.5 points (-113): Edwards is a superstar but his numbers against the Suns are tough to ignore.

The fourth-year shooting guard scored 13, 17 and 13 points in three games versus Phoenix. That's a significant drop-off from his 25.9 points per game average, which is already not much higher than this total.

Edwards has gone under this mark in 11 of his last 13 games with the outliers being a 51-point performance agianst the Washington Wizards and a 28-point outing against the Toronto Raptors.

Those were two teams blatantly taking.

Phoenix allows the ninth-fewest points per game to opposing shooting guards, per Fantasy Pros, and was 11th in defensive rating across the final 15 games.

Over 209.5 points (-175): Fading Minnesota's top scorer and taking the over might seem counterintuitive but this should still be a breeze.

This total was smashed in the two games where Edwards scored 13 points (113-115, Phoenix and 126-106, Phoenix).

The other meeting went under but Karl Anthony-Towns was sidelined.

With KAT in the mix and Phoenix's Big Three cooking, there should be more than enough star power to combine for 210 points even with Edwards having a rough one.

Phoenix has gone over this mark in seven of its last 10 games while Minnesota has gone over this mark in eight of its last 10.

Picks as of 11:25 p.m. on 04/19/2024.