In the final MLB game on Labour Day, the New York Yankees open a three-game series against the Texas Rangers.
The pregame narrative: Gerrit Cole is on the mound for the Yankees, and his plus-money strikeouts prop is catching my eye. I'm also tailing the bases props of Corey Seager and Giancarlo Stanton.
Check out my top Yankees vs. Rangers prop picks for Sept. 2.
Yankees vs. Rangers prop picks
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Best bet: Cole over 6.5 Ks (+125)
The two-time strikeout king isn't at the peak of his powers, but I still find this prop price a touch disrespectful for Cole.
After missing more than two-and-a-half months with an elbow injury, Cole has since made 12 starts this year for the Yankees. The first two were ramp-up starts with an atypical workload, so I'm not putting much stock in them. But here's what he's done in his past 10 outings:
- Six starts with over 6.5 Ks
- 10.5 K/9
- 27.5% K rate
Extrapolated over a full season, that K/9 would put him in the top 10 among qualified pitchers (just ahead of Freddy Peralta). And that K% would put him in the 83rd percentile (right in line with Zack Wheeler).
So although we've seen flashier strikeout numbers from Cole in the past, he's still shoving with some of the best.
The reigning AL Cy Young winner also put on his best show of the year against these very same Rangers.
On Aug. 10, Cole struck out 10 Texas hitters over just 5.1 innings of one-run ball. The Rangers whiffed on exactly half of their 52 swings against him ... and for context, MLB's average whiff rate is just 25.1%.
I think Cole can carve up this Rangers' offence again, and I'll gladly take that challenge on at plus money.
Key stat: Cole has gone over 6.5 Ks in three of his past four starts, as well as each of his past three road starts.
Quick picks
Seager over 1.5 bases (-103): Seager's hot streak over the past month is too good to ignore.
Since Aug. 2, Seager has a .287/.328/.657 slash line in 26 games. He's cashed this bet 15 times in that span.
Seager doesn't have a ton of success against Cole, but they have seen each other a solid amount of times. In past head-to-head matchups, Seager is 5-for-19 (.263) with a double.
Swinging a hot bat entering a platoon advantage matchup, I think there's plenty to like about Seager tonight (Seager has a .910 OPS vs. RHPs in his career)
Stanton over 1.5 bases (+100): Jack Leiter is expected to start for the Rangers, and he's gotten absolutely shelled through his first four MLB starts. So I really want a piece of the Yankees' offence.
With Stanton, I'm backing a guy who's making every hit count right now. He's 9-for-31 (.290) in his past nine games, and seven of those hits went for extra bases.
Leiter has allowed 24 hits, 22 runs and a 1.100 opponent OPS through just 13.1 big-league innings so far.
Picks made at 11:30 a.m. ET on 09/02/2024.
