The Toronto Blue Jays' losing streak is up to seven games, and they're in danger of extending it again tonight.
The pregame narrative: Toronto is a slight road underdog against the Boston Red Sox, and I'm picking Boston to win. Brayan Bello faced Kevin Gausman last week in Toronto, and the Sox came away with a comfortable victory.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Red Sox on June 25.
Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox
Go to full Blue Jays/Red Sox MLB betting markets.
Best bet: Red Sox moneyline (-117)
Despite underperforming expectations all season, Toronto has stayed within manageable wild-card contention by avoiding any off-the-rails losing streaks. Until now, that is.
The Jays entered mid-June with just one losing streak longer than three games. Their active seven-game skid is burying them, though, and I don't see things turning around tonight.
Gausman should have the edge over Bello, but in this matchup that hasn't been the case. Bello out-pitched Gausman last Wednesday in Toronto en route to a 7-3 win for Boston.
Neither pitcher has great numbers against their respective opponents tonight, but Gausman has been worse. Here are their results since 2023:
| Pitcher | ERA | K/9 | H/9 | Team record |
| Gausman vs. BOS | 9.00 | 9.6 | 13.5 | 0-3 |
| Bello vs. TOR | 3.71 | 11.1 | 9.0 | 2-1 |
Even if you call the Gausman/Bello comparison a wash, the Red Sox are far and away the better offensive club.
Boston is scoring 4.7 runs per game, which ranks ninth in the majors. Toronto is averaging a paltry 3.9 runs, which ranks 27th.
Over the past two weeks, the Sox have collectively slashed .294/.363/.479 while averaging 5.7 runs. In the same span, the Jays have a .237/.314/.373 slash line and a 3.7-run average.
Key stat: Boston has won eight of its past nine games, including all four matchups against Toronto.
Quick pick
Over 8.5 runs (-122): Both starters have been hit hard against these respective lineups, which means the over should definitely be in play on Tuesday.
According to Baseball Savant, the current Red Sox lineup is 31-for-101 (.307) with a .495 SLG against Gausman. And the current Blue Jays lineup is 28-for-78 (.359) with a .526 SLG against Bello.
At this number, the over is 11-4 in Gausman's starts this season. And the over is 10-3 in Bello's starts.
Duran over 0.5 runs (-114): Duran has enjoyed remarkable success all month long, and this is a solid price to back the leadoff man to keep up a stellar scoring trend.
The speedy centerfielder is batting .396 with a 1.099 OPS this month, and he's scored in 16 of 21 games — including five in a row.
Duran is 6-for-13 with four doubles and a homer off Gausman, so I like his chances of getting into scoring position.
Picks made at 9:20 a.m. on 06/25/24.
