Blue Jays picks vs. Tigers July 19: Fade Toronto with Jack Flaherty on the mound

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The current Blue Jays lineup is 9-for-61 (.148) with 22 Ks against Jack Flaherty. Photo by Gareth Patterson/AP.
Jordan Horrobin
@JordanHorrobin
July 18, 2024

The Toronto Blue Jays begin the post-all-star stretch of their season on Friday night with a home date against the Detroit Tigers.

The pregame narrative: With the trade deadline just two weeks away, one or both of these teams could be sellers. Jack Flaherty is playing at a sky-high level right now and should give the Tigers a chance to win this battle of also-rans.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Tigers on July 19.

Blue Jays picks vs. Tigers

Go to full Blue Jays/Tigers MLB betting markets.

Best Bet: Tigers moneyline (+100)

Entering the 2024 season, there were notably higher expectations for the Blue Jays than for the Tigers. FanGraphs' playoff odds gave the Jays a 49.0% chance and the Tigers a 28.1% chance.

Today, the Tigers' postseason odds are just 7.4% at FanGraphs. But that's vastly better than the Jays' odds (1.9%). Toronto has grossly underperformed and is rarely deserving of favourite status.

I like the Tigers are even money with Jack Flaherty on the mound. He should give them an excellent chance to win.

Among 82 pitchers with 90-plus innings, Flaherty ranks 20th in ERA (3.13), 15th in FIP (3.17) and seventh in WHIP (0.979).

He's been plagued by home runs — with a league-high 17.5% HR-to-fly-ball rate — but I'm not worried about that in this matchup. Toronto has just 86 total home runs, which is tied for the fourth-fewest in the majors.

With the trade deadline looming, Friday could be Flaherty's final start for Detroit. He's pitching superbly, with a 1.85 ERA and .533 opponent OPS in his past six starts. The Tigers are 5-1 in those games.

Detroit rolled into the all-star break, going 8-2 in its final 10 games. That includes series wins over the Cleveland Guardians and Los Angeles Dodgers. Hopefully, the Tigers can carry that momentum into Friday's series opener at Rogers Centre.

Key stat: Detroit is 3-1 against Toronto this season.

Quick picks

Blue Jays under 3.5 runs (-103): The Blue Jays' offence has been at the root of its overall disappointment this season. Toronto is averaging 4.06 runs per game, which ranks 24th in MLB.

Toronto has gone under 3.5 runs in 49 of 96 games (51.0%). Facing an elite pitcher like Flaherty, I like my chances that the Jays can stay below this number.

Flaherty has 22 Ks and just nine hits allowed against the Jays current lineup. He's held the team to a .148 BA and a .246 SLG.

Picks made at 2:45 p.m. on 07/18/24.

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