CFL Week 7 action kicks off on Friday and I'm choosing three wagers from three different games.
The pregame narrative: I'm fading both offences in a rivalry matchup out in the prairies. I also like the Edmonton Elks to snag their first win and the BC Lions to cover the spread.
Check out the best CFL Week 7 picks for July 19-21.
CFL Week 7 picks
Best Bet: Roughriders/Blue Bombers under 50.5 points (-110)
I'm fading the offence in a renewed CFL rivalry.
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers' offence has been one of the worst in the league till this point, resulting in an 0-4 for the first time since 2012. The Blue Bombers have since won back-to-back games and scored over 25 points for the first time last week against a terrible Calgary Stampeders defence.
Zach Collaros and the Winnipeg O will be in much tougher against the Riders' defence. The unit has been remarkable under new head coach/defensive coordinator Corey Mace. It's been the league's best at stopping the run and has also generated the most turnovers (16) with the best turnover ratio (+10).
Since Shea Patterson has moved into the starting spot for Sask, the offence has been in the tank, while Winnipeg has had a solid defence all year.
Since Patterson took over, the Riders are averaging 304 yards per game. He's only completed 32 passes for 470 yards and a touchdown.
Despite the offensive struggles, Winnipeg has maintained its defensive prowess from a year ago. They are allowing 25.2 points per game (third-fewest) and 367.2 yards per game (fourth-fewest).
I like the combination of stumbling offences mixed with elite defences.
Key stat: Winnepeg scores the fewest points per game (23.3).
Quick picks
Elks moneyline (+128): Last week I liked the Elks to win and I was wrong. But Edmonton has made major changes ahead of their rematch against the Ottawa Redblacks.
The Elks fired general manager/head coach Chris Jones after a 0-5 start. The writing was on the wall for Jones after having an unsuccessful stint in Edmonton over multiple years. Geroy Simon will be taking over the GM duties and Jarious Jackson will step in as the interim head coach.
Despite the 0-5 start, don't let Edmonton's record fool you. It has only lost by a combined 20 points to some of the best teams in the league (Alouettes, Roughriders, Lions, and Argonauts).
Furthermore, they have managed to lose the last four games by three points, while also losing via a walk-off field goal in three straight weeks. Their horrible start can be attributed to bad luck and having a tough schedule.
Also, the stats would indicate that Edmonton is better than its record suggests. It's averaging the sixth-most offensive yards per game (353.5), the fourth-fewest yards per play against (6), and has the second-highest second-down conversion rate (55.5%) in the CFL.
Lions -4.5 (-117): The Lions are the hottest team in the CFL and I expect them to keep the good times rolling against the Stampeders
BC is on a five-game win streak, which includes a 26-17 win over the Stampeders in Week 2.
Let's start with the Lions' offence. It's led by Most Outstanding Player of the Year candidate Vernon Adams Jr. who has had a magnificent start. Through six games, the gunslinger has thrown for 2,203 yards, 12 touchdowns, and has an efficiency rating of 114.7.
BC's defence has been elite as well. It is within the top three in most defensive categories including points allowed per game (24.2) and offensive yards allowed per game (351.3).
It's been a different story for Calgary's offence and Jake Maier. The 27-year-old has thrown for 1,252 yards and eight touchdowns.
The Stamps' suspect defence will be tested against the league's most explosive offence. They are allowing the most yards per game (405.6) and the fifth most points per game (28).
Picks made at 2:00 p.m. on 07/17/24.
