The all-star break is over, and the Toronto Blue Jays are back in action tonight against the Detroit Tigers.
The pregame narrative: Toronto is a slight home favourite against Detroit, who will have right-hander Jack Flaherty on the mound. I like Flaherty's strikeouts prop and am fading Jays hitter George Springer.
Check out the best Blue Jays props vs. the Tigers on July 19.
Blue Jays props vs. Tigers
Go to full Blue Jays/Tigers MLB betting markets.
Best Bet: Flaherty over 5.5 Ks (-127)
Flaherty is peaking at the perfect time for the Tigers, a team well out of wild-card contention that should be positioned to sell at the upcoming trade deadline.
When Flaherty signed his one-year deal with Detroit in the offseason, a midsummer swap to a contender was always a reasonable possibility. Flaherty has held up his part of the bargain, posting a 1.85 ERA and 10.1 K/9 over his past six outings.
His overall season numbers are excellent, too. Check out where he ranks among 82 pitchers with 90-plus innings:
- 20th in ERA (3.13)
- 15th in FIP (3.17)
- 7th in WHIP (0.979)
Why does all of this matter for a strikeouts prop? Because pitching well means Flaherty tends to pitch fairly deep into games, which gives him a solid chance to rack up Ks.
Sure enough, that's what he's done.
Flaherty has cleared 5.5 strikeouts in 13 of 16 starts, averaging 7.4 Ks per outing.
The reason Flaherty's strikeout line is set fairly low is because the Blue Jays aren't a high-strikeout club. On the season, they have the fifth-lowest K rate in the majors (19.7%).
That K rate has been higher over the past month, though (21.7%), and Flaherty hasn't had an issue baffling this lineup in the past.
Key stat: Since last August, Flaherty has 17 Ks in 12.1 innings against Toronto and cashed this prop in both starts.
Quick pick
Springer under 0.5 runs (-139): Springer enjoyed a superb 20-game stretch entering the all-star break, posting a 1.051 OPS and reclaiming his leadoff spot in the batting order.
So why am I fading Springer tonight?
For as good as Springer has been recently, he hasn't found any success against Flaherty in the past: 0-for-11, five strikeouts, one walk.
I looked at Springer to go hitless (+190), but his current hot streak scared me off of that. There's a fair amount of juice on this line, but Flaherty has been dealing lately — and Springer clearly hasn't figured out the Detroit righty just yet.
Picks made at 10:55 a.m. on 07/19/24.
