Marcus Stroman is back at Rogers Centre tonight as the Toronto Blue Jays host the New York Yankees.
The pregame narrative: The Yankees have lost seven of their past eight games, but Stroman is still doing his part to help the team win. Between him and Yusei Kikuchi, I think the under on the five-inning total is a good pick for tonight.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Yankees on June 28.
Blue Jays picks vs. Yankees
Go to full Blue Jays/Yankees MLB betting markets.
Best bet: Under 4.5 runs - first five innings (-113)
Stroman will always be a Blue Jay in the eyes of many, though his five-and-a-half season tenure with Toronto concluded five years ago.
He's faced the Jays three times since then — including twice already this year — and tends to do a pretty good job reminding them of what they're missing.
In a pair of April starts for the Yankees, Stroman held Toronto to nine hits and two runs over 11.1 innings.
What Stroman does best is garner weak contact via ground balls. His ground-ball rate (50.9%) ranks in the 84th percentile in MLB. In 102 at-bats against him, Toronto's expected batting average is just .218, per Baseball Savant.
I think Stroman can hold up his end of the bargain to keep this game under its F5 total. And although Kikuchi has struggled recently, I think he can help out, too.
Kikuchi had a sub-3.00 ERA for most of April and May, but a few rough outings since then have ballooned that mark up to 4.00. But his recent results against the Yankees are stellar.
The lefty has faced New York four times since the start of last season, holding the club to three runs on 16 hits over 22.1 innings.
Overall this season, the F5 under is 44-36 (55.0%) in Blue Jays games, per ATS.io.
Key stat: The F5 under is 3-0 in Stroman's three career starts against Toronto and 3-1 in Kikuchi's starts against New York since 2023.
Quick picks
Aaron Judge under 1.5 bases (-105): Judge seems to have every team figured out this year ... except the Blue Jays.
Coming off an 0-for-4 showing last night, Judge has now gone under 1.5 bases in six of seven matchups with Toronto.
Historically, Rogers Centre has been a haven for him. But the AL MVP frontrunner is just 1-for-17 with nine strikeouts inside The Dome in '24.
These types of trends probably aren't built to last for arguably the best hitter in baseball. But his numbers against Kikuchi are poor (4-for-23, 11 Ks), so I'm content to fade him at a solid price.
Bo Bichette over 0.5 runs (-106): How long will the Bichette-at-leadoff experiment last? I'm not sure, but the early returns have been a boon to his runs prop.
Bichette, who has primarily batted cleanup since the start of May, was pencilled into the No. 1 spot in the order in back-to-back games. And he crossed the plate both times.
This month, and frankly this season, hasn't been kind to the two-time all-star. But he's in the best spot to score right now, and I don't mind the price point.
Bichette is 2-for-7 with two doubles and a walk in his career against Stroman.
Picks made at 9:20 a.m. on 06/28/24.
