Italy and Switzerland kick off the Round of 16 on Saturday.
The pregame narrative: It took a last-minute screamer from Mattia Zaccagni to tie Croatia and secure Italy's spot in the knockout round. Offence has been hard to come by for the Azzurri but I expect it to advance past the Swiss nonetheless.
Check out this Italy vs. Switzerland best bet for the Round of 16 on June 29.
Italy vs. Switzerland best bet and odds
Click link to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.
| Best bet | Odds | Bet now ⬇️ |
| Italy to advance | -143 | Add to betslip |
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Italy vs. Switzerland prediction
Best Bet: Italy to advance (-143)
Luciano Spalletti was clearly opting for a defensive mentality when he sat Federico Chiesa to begin the Azzurri's match against Croatia.
And Italy did really well to start the game, holding Croatia to just two shots and 0.04 expected goals in the first half, according to TheAnalyst.
Things unravelled in the second half for a few minutes and Luka Modric eventually broke the deadlock minutes after having his penalty stopped — but Italy managed to stop the bleeding and equalize in the 98'.
Neither team has looked particularly strong, in my opinion, through three games. But Italy's defence has been better and that's what I'll hang my hat on.
Even with Riccardo Calafiori suspended for the game, I believe the Azzurri can hold Switzerland at bay.
The team has historically had a fantastic defence and that's shown through three games. Spain dominated possession against Italy on Matchday 2 but still only managed one goal, and it came off the aforementioned Calafiori's leg.
I think Italy can win in regulation but wouldn't be surprised at all if this game was tied (+200) and eventually went to penalties. Switzerland conceded one goal in each of its group-stage games and has tied three of its last four games overall.
And if that's the case Gianluigi Donnarumma gets the clear edge. The Italian keeper won player of the tournament at Euro 2020 and has been lights out so far. Expect him to be the difference-maker in a tight game.
Key stat: Switzerland hasn't beaten Italy since 1993 (5-6-0).
Pick made at 4:13 p.m. on 06/23/24.
