All three of Friday's MLB prop bets clock in at plus-money odds.
The pregame narrative: In the late window, I'm backing Freddie Freeman to clear his bases prop while also targeting Logan Gilbert and Carlos Correa in a two-part wager. Earlier on, look for Christian Yelich to capitalize on an enticing matchup.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for Friday, June 28.
MLB prop bets
Go to full MLB prop betting markets.
Best bet: Freeman over 1.5 bases (+116)
Time after time, Freeman has gotten the better of San Francisco Giants starter Logan Webb. That gives us a good baseline for this pick.
The tandem has matched up 33 times, and Freeman is 14-for-31 (.452) with a home run, three doubles and two walks.
Webb (6-6, 3.16 ERA) is having another nice year, but the 2023 NL Cy Young runner-up might be on shakier ground than his results show. His expected batting average (.281) and expected ERA (4.32) are both well below average, per Baseball Savant.
And again, Freeman has already found ample success in this matchup.
But this pick is about more than the head-to-head history. Freeman is also in a groove right now, cashing this bases prop in eight of his past 11 games.
On the season, Freeman has gone over 1.5 bases in 39 of 82 games (47.6%). The implied probability of this wager is 46.3%, so the value is perfectly reasonable.
One risk to this bet is Freeman's propensity to draw walks. His 13.1% walk rate ranks in the 96th percentile, and a Mookie Betts-less lineup might embolden opposing pitchers to work around him.
Then again, Webb doesn't make a habit of walking batters. His 5.3% walk rate is in the 86th percentile, and he had the lowest BB/9 in the NL last year (1.3).
As long as Freeman is swinging away, he should have a solid chance to cash this bet.
Key stat: In four of his past five games facing Webb, Freeman has gone over 1.5 bases.
Quick picks
Yelich over 0.5 runs (+110): Like Freeman against Webb, Yelich has an excellent history against Chicago Cubs starter Jameson Taillon.
Yelich is 10-for-26 (.385) with two home runs, a double and a walk against Taillon.
In recent weeks, Yelich's power hasn't been there but he's still finding ways on base. Over his past 14 games, the two-time batting champ has a .452 OBP and just a .434 SLG. He has scored in 10 of those matchups.
Parlay: Gilbert under 18.5 outs, Correa 1+ hits (+110): This combo wager is centred on Gilbert, who has quite a bit of juice on the under for his outs prop.
Gilbert is coming off back-to-back scoreless outings that lasted eight innings apiece. But now he'll face a Minnesota Twins lineup that torched him last month (eight runs on nine hits in 4.0 innings) and is doing some of its best work right now.
The Twins have a .932 OPS as a team in their past 15 games. Gilbert has gone under 18.5 outs in all four starts against them since 2022.
To make this a plus-money play, I've tacked on a hit from Correa. He's on fire right now, batting .430 over his past 20 games and cashing this bet 14 times in that span.
Picks made at 1:25 p.m. ET on 06/28/2024.
