The Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers meet in a game where I'm fading the starters.
The pregame narrative: Kevin Gausman hasn't been flashing impressive swing-and-miss stuff and I doubt we see that today in a tough matchup against Texas. Michael Lorenzen isn't working deep into ball games and his outs prop is at a fairly high mark. Thirdly, I like Corey Seager to crush.
Check out the best Blue Jays props vs. the Rangers on July 27.
Blue Jays props vs. Rangers
Go to full Blue Jays/Rangers MLB betting markets.
Best bet: Gausman under 5.5 strikeouts (-115)
The high strikeout totals fans and bettors were accustomed to seeing from Gausman just haven't been there this season.
The Blue Jays ace's 23.0% strikeout percentage is his lowest since splitting the 2018 season with the Baltimore Orioles and Atlanta Braves (19.1%).
His K-rate places him in the 55th percentile this year. For comparison, he had a 31.1% strikeout percentage last season which placed him in the 93rd percentile.
He's squaring off against a Texas team that presents a couple of problems.
The first is that this lineup has hit Gausman pretty hard in past clashes. Texas hitters are 23-for-69 (.333) collectively against the veteran hurler, according to Lineups.com.
Additionally, this lineup doesn't strike out much. The Rangers are averaging the seventh-lowest strikeouts per game (7.75) in the majors.
This is a prime situation to fade the righty.
Key stat: Gausman has gone under five strikeouts in four of his last six starts.
Quick picks
Seager over 1.5 total bases (+104): July has been a good month for Seager.
The Texas superstar has seen his numbers improve across the board. His average is up since the start of the month (.260 to .272), his on-base percentage (.344 to .361) and his SLG (.451 to .477).
He's been hitting the ball well over his last few games, specifically, going 7-for-13 during this stretch with a double and a homer.
He's one of several Rangers hitters that have had plenty of success against Gausman. Seager is 7-for-14 lifetime against the Toronto starter with a home run.
Lorenzen under 17.5 outs (-127): Lorenzen was soaring past this line often earlier this year but not so much recently.
Lorenzen has pitched exactly five innings in each of his last five starts. He's gone below this line in six of his last eight outings after topping it in eight of his first nine appearances.
The innings reduction is partly due to some recent struggles. Lorenzen owns a 4.25 ERA and 6.17 FIP over his last eight outings.
Toronto's offence isn't elite by any stretch, but Lorenzen was lifted after five innings his last time out against the lowly Chicago White Sox.
Picks made at 11:00 a.m. on 07/27/24.
