The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox duel in an important AL East matchup.
The pregame narrative: The Yankees don't have the hold on their division like they did earlier in the season and the Red Sox are hot on their tails. In this meeting, I'm fading offence by taking the under on a teased down total. I'm also backing Kutter Crawford to top his outs prop and fading Juan Soto to close out the ticket.
Check out the full Yankees vs. Red Sox SGP picks for the July 27 matchup.
Yankees vs. Red Sox SGP picks
Go to full Yankees/Red Sox betting markets.
Parlay: Under 10.5 runs + Crawford over 16.5 outs + Soto under 1.5 bases (+300)
Under 10.5 runs (-124): Taking an under with these two offences at Fenway Park is risky but both pitchers have seen success against their respective opponent's lineups.
I'll get to Crawford later on but I want to highlight Marcus Stroman first. Boston's lineup is 10-for-58 against the righty (.172 batting average).
That includes one extra-base hit and zero home runs. He simply hasn't had a bad outing against this side and I'm expecting that to hold true tonight.
The Yankees' lineup fares even worse against Crawford. It's 10-for-78 combined (.141 BA) with New York's sluggers having very limited success against the Red Sox starter.
Even one pitcher having a strong outing could be enough for the under on this high total to cash.
Other parlay picks
Crawford over 16.5 outs (-117): As eluded to in earlier in this article, Crawford dominates the Yankees.
This is also a line that the righty has cleared frequently throughout the season. He's reached 17 or more outs in 16 of his 20 starts, including twice against the Yankees.
His 33.5% chase rate ranks in the 91st percentile and getting batters to swing at pitches that are off the plate is what helps him get deep into games consistently.
Soto under 1.5 total bases (-129): Soto is having an MVP-worthy season even though he likely won't win the award. But his stats against Crawford are not up to standard.
He has one hit in six at-bats which was a double but I'm comfortable fading him tonight.
This season, Soto has seen 50-of-114 (43.9%) hits go for extra bases so even if the slugger were to have a knockoff of Crawford, it has a higher chance of being a single.
In comparison, 61 of Judge's 112 hits are XBHs (54.5%) so even though both have struggled in this matchup, I feel better fading Soto in this market.
He's also a walk machine, drawing 83 walks while only striking out 72 times this season. Reaching base on balls doesn't count as a total base and wouldn't hurt this wager.
Picks as of 1:06 p.m. on 07/27/2024.
