I'm backing one slugger while fading two other star players in today's MLB props.
The pregame narrative: Trea Turner has a great matchup today and I'm backing him to score a run as my best bet for Saturday. Elsewhere, I'm taking a risk and fading Aaron Judge and Shota Imanaga to round out my MLB prop bets.
Check out these MLB prop bets for July 27.
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Best bet: Turner over 0.5 runs (-120)
While looking at matchups around the league today, Turner's instantly jumped off the page.
He has eight hits in 13 at-bats against Cleveland Guardians' starter Carlos Carrasco (.615 batting average). Half of those went for extra bases.
The Philadelphia Phillies' shortstop is having quite the season as well. He's slashing .333/.380/.532 with 13 home runs and 36 RBI.
He couldn't be hotter at the plate either coming into this game as 10 of those homers have come in July.
Turner bats second in the Phillies' lineup and has the luxury of hitting in front of Bryce Harper and Alec Bohm. Getting on base for those two guys gives me confidence in Turner crossing home plate tonight and he has the matchup to do just that.
Key stat: Turner has eight runs in his last nine games.
Quick picks
Judge under 0.5 runs (+107): There's no better way to ensure a stressful Saturday than fading Judge but hear me out.
There aren't many bad matchups for the AL MVP favourite but I believe Boston Red Sox starter Kutter Crawford provides trouble.
Judge is 3-for-16 against the righty in his career and even though two of those hits left the ballparks, the nine strikeouts are just as important to note.
New York's other sluggers don't hit Crawford necessarily well either. Juan Soto, Anthony Volpe, Alex Verdugo and Gleyber Torres have hit a combined 4-for-35 against Boston's starter with none of the four batting over .200.
Even if Judge gets on base, it could be hard to string a rally together with the whole team struggling against Crawford.
Imanaga under 4.5 Ks (+116): This wager doesn't get any less stressful but there's also a strong case for it.
Firstly, the Kansas City Royals strikeout the second-fewest times per game (6.79) and that number has fallen to 4.67 over their last three games which is the fewest in the majors over that span.
The team has held 10 of its last 11 opposing starts to four or fewer strikeouts.
There is risk here as Imanaga is one of the more efficient players in the league, recording 108 Ks in 104 IP this season.
However, I'm taking a risk at plus-money on one of the most disciplined lineups in the league.
Picks made at 11:24 a.m. ET on 07/27/2024.
