The Toronto Blue Jays can complete the series sweep of the Texas Rangers on Sunday.
The pregame narrative: Toronto received an absolute gem from Kevin Gausman on Saturday to give it a series victory. I don't like its chances of earning a sweep, however, and am backing Texas to win. I'm also looking to back the under while fading Alejandro Kirk's total bases prop.
Check out the full Blue Jays SGP picks vs. the Rangers on July 28.
Blue Jays SGP picks vs. Rangers
Go to full Blue Jays/Rangers betting markets.
Parlay: Rangers moneyline + Under 9.5 runs + Kirk under 1.5 total bases (+290)
Rangers moneyline (-118): Texas was one of the hottest teams in baseball before this series started.
A pair of losses to Toronto have cooled off the defending champs, but a pitching edge makes them my choice in this contest.
The Rangers are turning to Jon Gray and he's been solid, especially lately. He pairs a 3.73 ERA with a 3.33 FIP and is coming off one of his best starts of the season.
Gray twirled 7.2 innings of four-hit, one-run ball against the Chicago White Sox.
The Blue Jays turn to the struggling Jose Berrios. His 4.08 ERA and 5.21 FIP are concerning marks and his recent play hasn't done much to demonstrate he's turning it around.
Berrios has posted a 7.78 ERA and 6.60 FIP in four starts this month.
Other parlay picks
Under 9.5 runs (-159): A strong outing from Gray should guide this number under the total.
Rangers games have had nine runs or fewer in 14 of his 20 appearances this season. Texas as a team has the fourth-highest under percentage (57.4%) in the majors.
Gray shouldn't struggle too much to generate outs against Toronto's lineup. The Blue Jays rank 25th in runs per game this season (4.07).
Texas' offence hasn't been great since returning from the All-Star break. The team is averaging 3.88 runs per game in nine contests.
Kirk under 1.5 total bases (-230): July has been Kirk's best month but that's not saying much.
Kirk's batting .296 in July which is significantly higher than his season-long average of .229. He's coming off a three-hit performance on Saturday but I'm still confident he's going to miss this mark on Sunday.
Toronto's catcher has gone under 1.5 total bases in eight of 12 contests this month.
Kirk also has a pretty stark home-road split. He's batting .205 at Rogers Centre in 2024 and .253 everywhere else.
The sample size is extremely small but Gray struck out Kirk in their lone head-to-head plate appearance.
Picks as of 11:12 a.m. on 07/28/2024.
