Three plus-money props make up tonight's picks for the New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox on Sunday Night Baseball.
The pregame narrative: I believe the offensive power in this matchup is the side to bet on after yesterday's 19-run explosion. That's why I'm backing Rafael Devers to score a run and Aaron Judge to drive one in while fading Red Sox's starter Tanner Houck in tonight's game.
Check out my Yankees vs. Red Sox picks for Sunday Night Baseball on July 28.
Yankees vs. Red Sox picks
Go to full Yankees/Red Sox betting markets.
Best Bet: Houck under 17.5 outs (+105)
Houck is having a strong season (2.71 ERA), including an outing against the Yankees on July 5 in which he gave up one run on two hits but he only pitched 3.1 innings.
That's because the righty threw 101 pitches and had to be pulled early despite holding New York to a single run.
Having to throw that many times to get 10 outs against New York's lineup is cause for concern leading into another start against the same dangerous hitters just a few weeks later.
Ball luck has been Houck's forte all season. He ranks in the 15th percentile or lower in average exit velocity (90.3) and hard-hit percentage (44.2), per Baseball Savant.
His whiff rate (22.9%) sits in the 32nd percentile showing why the Red Sox's starter can have trouble against a potent offence.
Even if he limits the Yanks' bats, I expect him to need a lot of pitches to do so.
Key stat: Houck averages 4.8 innings pitched per start against the Yankees in his career.
Quick picks
Judge over 0.5 RBI (+110): The AL MVP favourite has fared well against Houck in his career going 3-for-10 with a walk.
In addition, the slugger has been crushing the ball all series long. He has five hits (two being home runs), four runs scored and six RBI.
He had much worse career stats against Kutter Crawford (.188 average) heading into last night's game and was 4-for-4 with a homer and three RBI so I'm expecting the bat to stay hot.
There is no man pitchers fear more than Judge with runners on base. He leads the MLB with 95 RBI which is 21 more than his teammate Juan Soto who ranks third in the majors with 74.
Devers over 0.5 runs (+133): Another star hitter who's been hot at the dish is Boston's third baseman.
Devers is 8-for-15 (.533 BA) over his last four games and has scored a run in each contest. He's also 3-for-10 in his career against Yankees starter Carlos Rodon.
There's also the benefit of hitting in front of Tyler O'Neill. The Canadian is having a career season hitting cleanup for Boston and has four home runs in his last three games.
Picks made at 10:53 a.m. ET 07/28/2024.
