The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies close out the weekend with Sunday Night Baseball.
The pregame narrative: I expect both starting pitchers to dominate as the Phillies try to split the series with the Braves. Therefore, the under on the game total is my best bet for tonight. I'm also taking a plus-money prop on Aaron Nola and Kyle Schwarber.
Check out my Braves vs. Phillies picks for Sunday Night Baseball on Sept. 1.
Braves vs. Phillies picks
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Best Bet: Under 8.5 runs (-121)
I expect both pitchers to be firing on all cylinders tonight so the safe bet is the under.
The Phillies' Nola has a wealth of experience against this Braves lineup and I expect him to use that to his advantage. He's also been excellent in recent starts.
Across his three most recent outings, the experienced righty allowed just two earned runs in 19 innings pitched. We'll talk more about Nola in the next pick but I'm expecting him to deal.
I want to use the rest of this section to cover the success of Spencer Schwellenbach who's been exceptional in his rookie season.
The 24-year-old has a 3.72 ERA and 102 strikeouts in 87.0 IP. Compare that to 17 walks and it feels like we're seeing the evolution of a future ace.
He's started two games this year against the Phillies and both have stayed under this number.
Key stat: 11 of the last 13 games that Schwellenbach has started have ended below this total.
Quick picks
Nola over 6.5 strikeouts (+140): I want to circle back to Nola and dip into his strikeout market.
Don't get me wrong, he hasn't hit the number often this season but that's the reason for the nice plus-money number.
In a whopping 343 plate appearance sample size, this current Braves lineup has 95 hits off Nola but more importantly 109 strikeouts (.318 K rate).
If he can work deep into this game like he has recently, I think he can have an outlier game in the Ks department.
Schwarber under 0.5 runs (+110): Schwarber was on a heater earlier in the season but his bat has seemingly cooled off.
He has 88 runs in 125 games which is impressive but if we narrow it down to his last 15 games, the designated hitter's three runs stand out for the opposite reason.
Two of those runs came in the same game meaning this bet has cashed in 13 of his last 15.
I also cannot ignore Schwellenbach's success against Schwarber in the past even if it's limited. The Phillies' slugger is 0-for-3 with two strikeouts and a walk.
Picks made at 2:19 p.m. ET 09/01/2024.
