The Round of 16 at the US Open starts on Sunday.
The Latest: Alexei Popyrin is in top form and I'm backing him to win on Sunday as my best bet. Elsewhere, I'm taking the over on the total games in the match between Emma Navarro and Coco Gauff. Lastly, expect Alexander Zverev to win but not without resistance.
Check out my top US Open predictions and best bets for Sept. 1.
US Open predictions
Visit full US Open betting markets.
Best bet: Popyrin to win (-122)
Following the biggest win of his career, I'm taking the Australian to advance into the quarterfinals at the US Open.
Popyrin defeated Novak Djokovic, 3-1, on sets on Friday (6-4, 6-4, 2-6, 6-4). Even though Djokovic was battling injuries, he's still one of the best and this win can't be undervalued.
The 25-year-old is in incredible form currently, which includes winning the National Bank Open in August on hardcourt, which is the same surface the US Open is contested on.
That was no easy run for Popyrin, either. He defeated highly-ranked players Ben Shelton (No. 13) Grigor Dimitrov (No. 9 ranked), Hubert Hurakacz (No. 7) and Andrey Rublev (No. 6) on the way to the tournament win in Montreal.
Remarkably, the best run of the Aussie's career has come against the top competition in the world.
Sunday's opponent, Frances Tiafoe, ranks lower than all of those players (No. 20). And the American has played a lot of tennis already in this tournament. His last match — against Shelton — lasted 54 games.
The accumulation of long matches has resulted in Tiafoe playing 8:55 of tennis at the US Open. By comparison, Popyrin has spent just north of seven hours on the court across his first three contests.
Key stat: Popyrin has a 16-5 record on the outdoor hardcourts this year.
Other US Open picks
Zverev over 20.5 games won (-121): To win a match at a Grand Slam major, a player must win a minimum of 18 games, so let's start there.
Zverev is -420 on the moneyline and I expect him to get the win, but his opponent may not be so easy to put away.
Brandon Nakashima has played spoiler at the US Open thus far, eliminating two top-20 players: Holger Rune and Lorenzo Mussetti. He's spent most of his time on hardcourts this season (26 matches) and his experience is starting to become a factor.
At the end of the day, all Nakashima needs to do is win one set against Zverev to push this into a fourth, which would make it likely for the German to win some extra games beyond the minimum.
Considering Nakashima is -200 to cover the +2.5 set spread, and the total games is set at 38.5, I feel confident in the young American to keep it relatively close but ultimately lose out to Zverev.
Navarro/Gauff over 21.5 total games (-117): I have a futures bet on Navarro to win the US Open, but I can't deny Gauff's excellent play up to this point.
In fact, both players have been stellar, playing an identical 57 games apiece to reach this stage tournament. That success isn't surprising for either on this playing surface, though.
Navarro is 29-10 on outdoor hardcourts and Gauff is 22-7. With that kind of form on both sides, I'm expecting an exciting match that goes the distance.
Considering the over here could cash in two close sets, it feels like a no-brainer to jump on board.
Tennis predictions made at 3:07 p.m. on 08/31/24
