Two underdogs and a favourite make up these EPL Matchday 2 picks.
The pregame narrative: Manchester City is slated to host recently-promoted Ipswich Town in what I expect to be a drumming. Elsewhere, Newcastle is worth fading on the road while Aston Villa is a good bet to pick up points against Arsenal at home.
Check out the best EPL Matchday 2 picks.
EPL Matchday 2 picks
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Best Bet: Manchester City over 1.5 first-half goals (+105)
This seems like one of those games City could win four or five to nil.
Pep Guardiola's side is coming off a gritty 2-0 victory at Stamford Bridge and now gets to play at home against a team it severely outclasses. The Sky Blues are -1,115 favourites to win and Erling Haaland is -195 to score.
On top of that, City is -275 to lead at half and win and -225 to score over 2.5 goals.
None of those options give bettors value so I'm turning to this first-half bet instead. City can come out of the gates flying and I like their chances of potting two goals before the whistle.
The team went 14-5-0 at the Etihad last season while averaging a league-best 2.68 home goals per game.
Ipswich Town fans must be elated it's back in the Premier League after a 22-year absence but the team has had a brutal schedule to start its season.
Last week, the Blues hosted Liverpool and lost 2-0. Now they have to go play the four-time reigning champs. This could get ugly.
Key stat: Last season, Manchester City outscored the three recently promoted teams (Sheffield United, Burnley, and Luton Town) 10-2 at home.
Quick pick
Bournemouth or tie (-150): Newcastle has lofty expectations after a disappointing 2023-24 season.
The Magpies have spent boatloads across the last few transfer windows but haven't gotten their money's worth, finishing seventh last year.
They're already off to a suspect start, picking up a 1-0 win over a weak Southampton side. Newcastle generated just 0.3 xG to its opponent's 1.8, per FBRef.
Bournemouth was a very mediocre team last season, sitting 12th in the table with a 7-6-6 record at home.
But it did play Newcastle well, beating the Magpies 2-0 at home and drawing them 2-2 on the road.
Aston Villa to win or tie (+104): These are the types of games Arsenal needs to win if it wants to hoist the Premier League Trophy.
But Aston Villa is far from a pushover and I like the Lions' chances of at least drawing at home.
Unai Emery played the spoiler to his old team last year by beating the Gunners in both of their EPL fixtures. Villa's 2-0 victory at the Emirates was one of only two games Arsenal lost at home all season.
The Lions were also a great team at home, going 12-4-3 at Villa Park en route to a fourth-place finish.
Picks made at 12:12 p.m. on 08/21/24.
