The Toronto Blue Jays search for a series victory over the Minnesota Twins on Sunday afternoon.
The pregame narrative: Toronto's offence exploded in Saturday's win and I expect the Blue Jays' bats to have some runs left in them. I also like Minnesota's offence to have a day, which is why I'm wagering on the over and Twins run line. Thirdly, Bailey Ober should work deep into this contest.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Twins on Sept. 1.
Blue Jays picks vs. Twins
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Best Bet: Over 8.5 runs (-107)
Offence isn't something bettors have typically seen in Blue Jays games this season but there's been a recent uptick.
Toronto's 15-run output on Saturday isn't the lone example of this. The Blue Jays have gone over this total in eight of their last 13 matches. Today's pitching duel should provide another higher-scoring affair.
Yariel Rodriguez gets the ball for Toronto and his numbers aren't blowing anybody away. He has a 4.82 ERA and 4.50 FIP this season and both those marks are on the rise.
Rodriguez owns a brutal 9.42 ERA and 6.80 FIP across his last three starts. The over on this total cashed in each of those outings.
This hasn't been a banner year for the typically strong Ober. The Twins pitcher combines a 4.06 ERA with a 3.87 FIP and is coming off his worst start of the season. Ober allowed nine runs and lasted just two innings against the Atlanta Braves on Monday.
Minnesota has gone over this number in each of his last two starts.
Bet on this game to feature plenty of offence.
Key stat: The Twins have gone over this total in three of their last five games.
Quick pick
Twins -1.5 (+110): I expect this contest to feature plenty of runs but it's the Twins that should emerge victorious.
Rodriguez's recent struggles are a big reason for this fade. Toronto has lost each of his last six starts, failing to cover the run line in his last two.
The righty's biggest problem is his inability to pitch strikes. According to Baseball Savant, he has a 16th percentile walk rate and 29th percentile chase rate.
Ober has been inconsistent but the Twins have still covered this spread in four of his last seven outings.
Ober over 17.5 outs (-141): There's a decent amount of juice to pay here but I like this wager for several reasons.
Firstly, Ober consistently delivers six-plus innings of work. He's pitched at least six innings in 11 of his last 12 outings.
He's beat this mark in 16 of his 25 starts this season.
Secondly, Minnesota will likely lean on Ober in this contest after Saturday's shelling. The Twins used five different pitchers in Saturday's blowout loss, and would certainly like to have Ober eat innings in this contest.
Picks made at 9:21 a.m. on 09/01/24.
