Lorenzo Musetti will challenge Novak Djokovic in the semifinals at Wimbledon.
The pregame narrative: Djokovic got a by in the quarterfinals due to a walkover against Alex De Minaur so the Serbian star should be well rested for his semifinal match. Musetti is by far his strongest on grass so I'm backing the Italian to win at least one set as my best bet for Friday's match.
Check out our Musetti vs. Djokovic odds and best bet for their Wimbledon match on July 12.
Musetti vs. Djokovic Wimbledon odds
Best bet: Musetti +2.5 sets (-125)
Djokovic is playing at the highest level even at the age of 37. He's seen little resistance in his first four games, losing only two sets.
I mean, after all, the Serbian great is 94-10 all-time on grass. That record is unmatched by his peers.
So why would I be backing Musetti to win a set? There are a couple of reasons.
To start, the 22-year-old has age on his side. His youth could shine through and be the difference late. More importantly, the Italian is so much better on grass than on any other surface.
Musetti is a not-so-impressive 28-19 in 2024. But on the lawn, he carries a 12-2 record and continuously looks dangerous on the surface.
That was capped off by an incredibly resistant effort against Taylor Fritz in the quarters where he crawled back from an early deficit and won three of the final four sets to come away with the victory.
Musetti broke Djokovic on all five of his opportunities in their last meeting at the 2024 French Open. If that is the case again on Friday, I find it difficult to see the Italian not having at least some success.
I fully expect the Serbian to win this match and advance to the finals but I do not believe it will be a blowout. Back the 22-year-old to steal at least one set.
Key stat: Musetti took Djokovic to five sets in their last meeting at the French Open in June.
Tennis Picks made at 9:47 a.m. ET on 07/11/2024.
