Mets vs. Cubs picks: Sunday Night Baseball

Mets vs. Cubs Sunday Night Baseball picks: Take the under, fade Severino's strikeout prop

Check out tonight's Sunday Night Baseball picks. Photo by Nick Wass/AP.

Avery Perri

June 23, 2024

The New York Mets and Chicago Cubs settle their rubber match on Sunday Night Baseball.

The pregame narrative: Luis Severino and Javier Assad get the ball for New York and Chicago, respectively. Both pitchers have been enjoying solid seasons and have had success against their opponents in the past, making the under my best bet.

Check out my Mets vs. Cubs picks for Sunday Night Baseball on June 23.

Mets vs. Cubs picks

Best Bet: Under 8.5 runs (-134)

The first two games of this series went over this total but there's good reason to believe that trend ends tonight.

Severino has been solid for the Mets and carries a 3.52 ERA and 1.20 WHIP into tonight's contest. Those aren't eye-popping numbers but the hard-throwing righty does well to limit hard contact and keep the ball in the yard.

His 0.85 HR/9 rate is 22nd in MLB while his 4.7% barrel rate ranks in the 86th percentile, according to Baseball Savant. That's what under bettors should like to see.

And for as good as Severino has been, Assad has been even better.

The third-year righty has a stellar 2.75 ERA and has allowed two or fewer earned runs in 13 of 15 starts. That includes an outing against the Mets in April where he allowed just one earned run in 5.0 IP. Chicago lost that game, 4-2.

Assad also held New York to one earned run in 6.0 IP in his lone other start against the team and holds the Mets lineup to a collective .172 batting average in 32 plate appearances.

Severino has done similar things to Chicago

The Cubs are hitting just .111 against the Dominican with a 26.7% K rate in 30 plate appearances.

Key stat: Severino held Chicago to just one earned run in 8.0 IP back in April.

Quick pick

Severino under 4.5 strikeouts (+135): I expect Severino to shove but I'm still fading his strikeout total. This is a number he's fallen under in four straight starts and six of his last seven.

The righty's 17.4% K rate and 19.7% whiff rate rank in the 18th and 13th percentiles, respectively. Severino is a contact pitcher who forces ground balls 51% of the time (85 percentile in MLB).

The Cubs strike out more than the average team but it took Severino eight full innings to barely scrape by this line with five strikeouts when he last played them.

Take the under on his line tonight.

Picks made at 1:29 p.m. ET 06/23/2024.

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