Pete Alonso is a two-time Home Run Derby champ, so it's no surprise to see him listed as the frontrunner for tonight's event. But let's show some love to the long shots, shall we?
The pregame narrative: While Alonso has +300 odds to win the derby, three of the eight participants have odds of +900 or longer. Teoscar Hernandez is my long-shot pick to win, but Jose Ramirez and Alec Bohm are worth highlighting, too.
Check out these MLB Home Run Derby long shots for the all-star event on Monday, July 15.
MLB Home Run Derby long shots
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| Long shot pick | Odds | Bet now ⬇️ |
| Hernandez to win the HR Derby | +900 | Add to betslip |
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MLB Home Run Derby long shot pick
Best bet: Hernandez (+900)
As the Toronto Blue Jays continue to whiff in the power department, Hernandez looks more and more like the slugger that got away.
His presence in the Home Run Derby only punctuates that further.
The two-time Silver Slugger has been heating up this month, posting a .348/.423/.478 slash line in 12 games leading up to the all-star break.
He only has one home run in his past 20 games, though, which plays into his status as a derby long shot. But his profile fits an event like this.
See, Hernandez struggles with junk pitches. He's batting .196 against breaking balls (i.e., sliders, curves, sweepers, etc.) and whiffs on 34.0% of his swings, per Baseball Savant. That whiff rate ranks in the fourth percentile.
If all goes according to plan tonight, Hernandez will see nothing but meatballs from Dodgers third base coach Dino Ebel. Did you know that Ebel was on the mound for Vladimir Guerrero Sr.'s Home Run Derby win in 2007?
Hernandez has a 92nd-percentile barrel rate (14.7%), so it's clear he can crush the right pitches. Look for the energetic outfielder to make some noise in Texas tonight.
Key stat: Globe Life Field has a favourable layout for Hernandez. He has 180 career home runs, but that number would be 191 if he'd played every game at Globe Life, per Baseball Savant.
Other HR Derby options
Ramirez (+1,100)
With 23 bombs so far, Ramirez has the third-highest homer total entering the derby.
The switch-hitter hasn't announced yet which side he'll swing from, though it's fair to expect he'll bat as a lefty. After all, 15 of his 23 homers have come from the left side this year.
If anyone in this competition could muster up a revenge game narrative, it's Ramirez. He first competed in this event in 2022 — despite dealing with a thumb injury that would later require surgery — and was ousted in the first round.
Back for more, who says J-Ram can't get it done? He's flirting with a 40-homer pace this season, so he certainly isn't lacking for pop.
Bohm (+1,500)
Making the case for Bohm is the most difficult of them all. No wonder he has the longest odds.
MLB's doubles leader (33) has ample power, but he's far more adept at crushing balls into the alley rather than over the wall.
Bohm sports a .481 xSLG (85th percentile) and .304 xBA (97th percentile), proving that he has no problem tagging the baseball. Long balls haven't come easily, though, and his 11-homer total is dead last in the field.
Can he create a little more lift-off for the derby to turn doubles into four-baggers? That remains to be seen.
MLB odds as of 11:00 a.m. on 07/15/24.
