New year, new format at the MLB Home Run Derby.
The pregame narrative: This year's event, located at Globe Life Field in Texas, is doing away with the bracket-style competition in the opening round. It'll be a wide-open event for the eight homer-happy sluggers, and I have prop bets for three of them: Gunnar Henderson, Bobby Witt Jr. and Pete Alonso.
Check out these MLB Home Run Derby best bets for the all-star event on Monday, July 15.
MLB Home Run Derby picks
Click link to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.
| Picks | Odds | Bet now ⬇️ |
| Henderson to not reach the semifinals | +105 | Add to betslip |
| Witt to hit the longest home run | +250 | Add to betslip |
| Alonso to win the HR Derby | +300 | Add to betslip |
Go to full HR Derby betting markets.
MLB Home Run Derby picks
Best Bet: Henderson to not reach the semifinals (+105)
Henderson has 28 home runs so far, which is more than anyone else in the derby field.
So why am I betting on an early exit for the reigning AL Rookie of the Year?
Inexperience is a factor, for one. He's never participated in a "competitive" derby, as he told ESPN a couple of weeks ago, so it's a bit of a mystery to see how he'll handle taking dozens of hacks in short order with the sole purpose of sending the ball over the wall.
Henderson isn't the only first-time participant, though. So instead of trying to quantify that aspect, let's move on to something else.
Baltimore's all-star shortstop is the only pure lefty bat in the field (Jose Ramirez is a switch-hitter and is reportedly undecided about which side to swing from). That should be a disadvantage.
According to Baseball Savant, righties hit 20% more homers at Globe Life Field than they do elsewhere. Lefties, meanwhile, hit 10% more homers at the Arlington, Texas park than they do elsewhere.
So yes, it's a homer-friendly stadium for all. But righties tend to fare better.
Case in point: Of Henderson's 28 homers this year, only 23 would've left the yard at Globe Life.
One more point against Henderson is that he's entering the derby in a power outage. I don't want to put too much stock in that because a derby is nothing like facing MLB pitching. But it's still worth noting — and who knows, maybe he's dealing with a minor injury of some kind.
Though he did hit a home run in Sunday's series finale against the Yankees, Henderson has just two homers in his past 16 games.
Key stat: Entering Sunday, Henderson was on a 15-game stretch in which he had one home run and a .397 SLG.
Quick picks
Witt to hit the longest home run (+250): Listed at 6-foot-1 and 200 pounds, Witt isn't the biggest basher at the derby. But he has flashed the most single-swing power of the bunch.
Back in May, Witt drilled a 468-foot home run — by Baseball Savant's estimate — depositing the ball in the second level of the centre field fountain at Kauffman Stadium. That is comfortably the longest HR ball this season for any of the contestants.
Alonso and Marcell Ozuna are tied for the second-longest tank at 446 feet apiece.
Witt's +250 odds are tied for the shortest in the field, next to Alonso. I'll go with the guy whose longest HR this season is 22 feet clear of everybody else.
Alonso to win the HR Derby (+300): This is a chalky pick, but Alonso is a justifiable favourite.
He's in his fifth derby, with two victories in tow, and he has more career derby dingers (195) than anyone else in the event's history.
Mock him if you want for lifting before the event or meditating by the batting cages between rounds. But the guy knows how to lock in — and he knows how to hit dingers.
Last year, Alonso was ousted right away, as Julio Rodriguez hit a record 41 first-round homers to defeat him. Alonso also dealt with some suspect pitching from Mets batting practice coach Aaron Myers.
This year, Alonso has reinstated former Mets bench coach Dave Jauss to be his pitcher. Jauss was on the mound when Alonso won the 2021 MLB Home Run Derby in Denver.
Picks made at 1:50 p.m. on 07/14/24.
