MLB Home Run Derby odds: Alonso favoured, Ramirez an interesting long shot

The MLB Home Run Derby takes place on Monday night at Globe Life Field, where eight sluggers are sure to put a hurting on a lot of baseballs.

The pre-derby narrative: This year's tournament features a new format, doing away with the first-round matchups from the past. Two-time champ Pete Alonso is the favourite, while Gunnar Henderson and hometown masher Adolis Garcia are among the top contenders seeking their first title.

Check out our MLB Home Run Derby odds for the all-star event on Monday, July 15.

MLB Home Run Derby odds

Click on linked odds below to bet now. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

MLB odds as of 10:00 a.m. ET on 07/14/24.

Go to full HR Derby betting markets.

This is far from the first time the derby has undergone a format change since its inception in 1985. Still, it's important to note the key differences taking effect this year:

• Round 1 won't have any head-to-head matchups. Instead, the unseeded players will try to hit as many homers as they can and the top four will advance to the semifinals.

• In Rounds 1 and 2, players will have either three minutes or 40 pitches — whichever limit is reached first. In Round 3 — the finals — players will have either two minutes or 27 pitches.

If anything, the rule changes might help level the playing field for contenders hoping to knock off the favoured Alonso. After all, he'll be playing by these rules for the first time, too.

Best MLB Home Run Derby odds

The favourite: Alonso (+300)

Some of MLB's top sluggers step away from the HR derby after they've won it once. Many others never participate at all.

And then there's Alonso, who clearly loves this event dearly.

The 29-year-old has competed in every derby since he entered the league in 2019, and he's already won it twice ('19, '21). Another victory would tie him with Ken Griffey Jr. for the most derby wins ever.

Alonso has posted a career-low OPS (.769), and his 18 HRs have him well off track for a third consecutive season of 40-plus bombs. But numbers like that don't mean as much for a contest like this.

Experience should help, even though the rules are different. After all, none of his contemporaries have ever won the derby.

Familiarity with his pitcher will help, too. Alonso will work with Dave Jauss, a former Mets bench coach (now with the Nationals) who was on the mound when Alonso won in 2021.

To this point, the only player to eliminate Alonso in the derby is Julio Rodriguez. Someone else will have to take up that torch to prevent the derby favourite from winning his third title.

HR Derby notes

• Henderson (+400) clubbed 28 homers last year en route to winning AL Rookie of the Year honours, and he's already up to 27 homers this year. That's the most among all derby participants. But according to Baseball Savant, he'd only have 22 HRs this year if he played exclusively at Globe Life Field. The park is a bit kinder to righties than it is to lefties like Henderson.

• Much like Randy Arozarena a few years ago, Garcia (+450) broke out with an electric display of power in the 2023 postseason. Garcia had eight HRs in 15 games and earned ALCS MVP in the process. In his home park, Garcia will look to improve on last year's Round 1 exit — ironically, at the hands of Arozarena.

• Ramirez (+1,100) is trying to become the first switch-hitter to win the event — and he's reportedly still undecided regarding which side to swing from. This season, 15 of Ramirez's 23 HRs have come from the left side ... but his OPS from the right side (1.081) is more than 300 points better.

• The long shot of the event is Alec Bohm, a 20-to-1 outsider who has even longer odds to hit the derby's longest home run (+2,500). There are 73 players with more HRs than Bohm's 11, including all other derby participants. Bohm is more of a gap-to-gap hitter, evidenced by his league-leading 31 doubles.