One slugger and one starting pitcher make up today's MLB prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Sunday equals another getaway day in the majors but the lighter schedule still provides two prop bets. Firstly, I'm backing Francisco Lindor to score a run while also expecting Bryan Woo to have a strong start against the San Francisco Giants.
Find out why in the best MLB prop bets for Aug. 25.
MLB prop bets
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Best bet: Lindor over 0.5 runs (-121)
The Mets' slugger has quietly been on a heater in August. Since the start of the month, Lindor is batting .340 with 18 runs scored in 22 games played.
This is also a matchup I feel that he can exploit. In 22 plate appearances against Martin Perez, Lindor reached base 12 times (seven hits, five walks).
Since he hits out of the leadoff spot for the New York Mets, getting on base would mean ample opportunities for the big bats to drive him in.
Earlier in the season, Perez had a start against the Mets in which he was decent (5.2 innings pitched, six hits, three earned runs) but Lindor still managed to go 2-for-4 and score a run in the process. That led his team to a 6-3 win.
He was also hitting third in the order at that point of the season and wasn't on the hot streak that he is right now.
Key stat: Lindor has reached base seven times, leading to four runs scored, across the first three games of the Padres' series.
Quick pick
Woo over 6.5 strikeouts (+125): I'm backing a strong arm and fading the Giants' offence here.
Woo is having a fantastic second MLB season. He's currently boasting a 5-2 record with a 2.12 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP.
His 2.9% walk rate and 2.1% barrel rate both sit inside the 99th percentile, per Baseball Savant. That shows his incredible ability to keep hitters off the basepath.
It's also the reason he's able to get deep into ball games (six-plus innings pitched in each of his last four starts). Going late into this game would mean more potential batters to send packing.
The downfall here would be that Woo hasn't been an elite strikeout artist this season (6.8 K/9) but things have been better lately and I think he has the matchup here to run up the Ks.
Across those four previously mentioned starts in August, his K/9 has been much better (8.0). That includes starts against the Dodgers (five Ks) and the Phillies (six Ks).
San Fran ranks worse than both of those teams in strikeouts per game (8.7). That number also elevates when the side plays on the road (9.5).
The Giants are hitting .235 against righties with a 24.5% strikeout rate. I think Woo is in store for a strong outing this evening.
Picks made at 11:36 a.m. ET on 08/25/2024.
