I've got three prop bets from today's MLB slate.
The pregame narrative: Trea Turner is on another planet right now and is a good bet to stay hot against the Atlanta Braves. Later on, Brandon Pfaadt has a nightmare matchup against the San Diego Padres. I'm fading him and am backing Luis Arraez.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for July 6.
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Best Bet: Turner over 0.5 runs (-114)
I backed Turner to score at +120 as my best bet yesterday.
The shortstop delivered in style. He went 2-for-4 with a pair of home runs against Max Fried, who carried a 2.91 ERA and 1.09 WHIP into the contest. And they weren't just wall scrapers, they were absolute bombs:
Trea Turner’s second homer of the game is a 459 foot BOMB pic.twitter.com/ff8zHbFuUb
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) July 6, 2024
Turner might be a good NL MVP long-shot pick at +10,000 with the way he's been playing. The 31-year-old is slashing .338/.373/.606 since returning to the lineup on June 17 with nine extra-base hits in 16 games.
He's on a special type of tear right now, going 11-for-23 with four home runs and eight runs scored in his last five games.
No one can argue against that type of production but bettors should feel even more confident given his opponent tonight.
The Braves are trotting out rookie right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach who owns a 5.68 ERA and 4.01 FIP in six starts. He's given up four earned runs in back-to-back games and Turner will have ample opportunities to get on base as the road team's No. 2 hitter
Key stat: Turner is hitting .344 against righties this season and has cashed this bet in five straight games.
Quick picks
Pfaadt under 17.5 outs (+130): Pfaadt will need to throw 6.0 innings for this wager to lose. That's a mark he consistently hits but I struggle to see it happening today.
The sophomore righty is a workhorse and has gone over this number in 11 of his last 12 games. But the exception was against the Padres when he gave up five earned runs in 5.1 IP.
Pfaadt landed on exactly 18 outs in his other start against San Diego this year.
This lineup has terrorized the 25-year-old and is batting a combined .343 with a .336 xBA in 72 plate appearances, according to Baseball Savant.
The Padres are also on fire right now offensively and are 12-3 in their last 15 games while averaging 6.2 runs per game with a .292 batting average and 137 wRC+ (both second-best in MLB in that span).
Arraez over 0.5 runs (+125): I think Pfaadt's in trouble and I think there is really solid value on Arraez to score here.
The two-time NL batting champion has a hit in six of his last seven games with 12 total knocks in that span. Somehow he's failed to score in three straight games despite getting on base five times but I'll chalk that up as an anomaly.
Arraez is 7-for-10 against Pfaadt lifetime and should put himself in scoring position frequently tonight.
Picks made at 10:23 a.m. ET on 07/06/2024.
