We're pulling three prop bets from the evening slate of MLB's Labour Day action.
The pregame narrative: Ian Happ and the Chicago Cubs are rolling right now, which has me backing the leadoff man to cross the plate at plus-money odds. I'm also seeking plus-money returns on a combo wager involving Luis Severino and Masataka Yoshida.
Check out how I'm backing them in the top MLB prop bets for Sept. 2.
MLB prop bets
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Best bet: Happ over 0.5 runs (+106)
The Cubs are on fire right now, and Happ is at the centre of their success as the team vies for a wild-card berth.
Chicago is 15-6 in its past 21 games. In the same span, Happ has scored 19 runs while posting a .314/.398/.616 slash line.
Happ is one of baseball's hottest hitters dating back to Aug. 7, ranking ninth in wRC+ (180) and 10th in OPS (1.014).
Tonight, he and the Cubs will face Pittsburgh Pirates starter Jared Jones, who's had a strong rookie year but got rocked by the Cubs last time out. After nearly two months on the injured list, Jones returned on Aug. 27 and allowed five runs on five hits and three walks over just 4.0 innings.
Happ hit a leadoff double in that game. He's now 3-for-9 with a double and a home run against Jones.
Run props usually rely on the contributions of teammates, so it's nice to know that the guys behind Happ have strong numbers against Jones, too.
Chicago's Nos. 2-4 hitters — Michael Busch, Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellinger — are a combined 7-for-18 (.389) against Jones with six extra-base hits.
Key stat: Happ has scored in two of three matchups against Jones this season.
Quick picks
Parlay: Severino under 18.5 outs, Yoshida 1+ hits (+108): Fading Severino is the backbone of this wager, but I figured I'd combine it with Yoshida's hits prop to provide a plus-money option.
Seeing Severino's outs line set at 18.5 is perplexing given that he's only cashed that bet in two of his past 10 starts (and eight of 26 on the year). Yes, he tossed a shutout in mid-August, but that's the only time he's recorded an out past the fifth inning since July 20.
Boston's offence has been pretty cold, but it'd be out of character for Severino to clear this line.
And speaking of Boston's offence, one bright spot is certainly Yoshida. He has a .352 BA in his past 25 games and has recorded a hit in 16 of his past 22 starts.
Yoshida, a lefty batter, has the platoon advantage against Severino tonight. The outfielder has a .304 BA in his career against RHPs.
Lawrence Butler over 1.5 bases (+128): If you haven't followed the A's this year, no one's blaming you. But that probably means you've missed out on Butler's bonafide heater.
Amid an 11-game hit streak, the second-year outfielder has gone over 1.5 bases nine times.
Logan Gilbert is on the mound for the Seattle Mariners tonight and should pose a tough test. But Butler is slugging .513 against RHPs this year and I'll take my chances amid this insane run.
From the leadoff spot, Butler has six HR and three 2B in just his past six games.
Picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET on 09/02/2024.
