The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees settle their rubber match on Sunday Night Baseball.
The pregame narrative: New York erupted for a 14-4 win yesterday but that's been far from the norm lately. I'm backing the Red Sox to take an early lead behind Kutter Crawford and expect Rafael Devers to get after Luis Gil.
Check out my Red Sox vs. Yankees picks for Sunday Night Baseball on July 7.
Red Sox vs. Yankees picks
Best Bet: Red Sox F5 moneyline - tie no bet (+105)
The Yankees' offence found an unlikely spark plug yesterday when rookie Ben Rice hit three home runs in a blowout victory.
Vibes were high in the Bronx but I expect reality to set back in tonight. New York has been downright awful over its last 20 games, going 6-14 with the seventh-worst team batting average in MLB (.230).
The team has still hit for power in this stretch but Crawford has done a good job limiting hard contact this year and has great numbers against the Yankees' lineup.
Boston's righty owns a 73rd percentile hard-hit rate (35.4%) and has held New York to a combined .132 batting average and 29.8% K rate in 57 plate appearances.
Aaron Judge is 3-for-13 against Crawford — though two of those hits went for home runs.
When backing pitchers on the F5 moneyline we want to see quality starts. That's when they go at least 6.0 IP and give up three earned runs or fewer.
Crawford has done that three times in a row, including a game against New York where Boston was up 4-1 through five innings.
The same can't be said for Gil, who is unravelling after a solid start to the season.
New York's rookie has been knocked around in three consecutive starts, giving 16 earned runs in just 9.2 innings pitched (14.92 ERA).
His strikeout numbers are down and his walk rate is up. Giving out free passes isn't a good thing against a Red Sox lineup which has the eighth-best wRC+ since the beginning of June (116).
Key stat: Boston is 45-34-9 on the F5 moneyline, per ATS.io. That's the fourth-best record in MLB.
Quick pick
Devers over 0.5 runs (+110): Devers is the cleanup hitter for the Red Sox so he's not exactly in prime scoring position. That said, his 54 runs are still the second most on the team and he's in a nice matchup.
Gil is struggling and Devers makes a living off killing right-handed pitching.
The third-baseman is slashing .310/.406/.658 against righties compared to .245/.310/.412 against lefties. The nearly 100-point discrepancy in on-base percentage is what we're looking to capitalize on here. It also helps that 16 of his 19 home runs have come against RHP.
Devers scored twice yesterday and has cashed this bet in eight of his last 11 games with 12 total runs scored.
Picks made at 10:10 a.m. ET 07/07/2024.
