The Toronto Blue Jays hit the road for a three-game set against the Seattle Mariners.
The pregame narrative: Blue Jays fans tend to turn up for this series but they might not have much to cheer for tonight. Toronto has lost four of its last five games and turns to a struggling Kevin Gausman. I'm fading his strikeout prop and am backing the Mariners on the F5 moneyline.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Mariners on July 5.
Blue Jays picks vs. Mariners
Go to full Blue Jays/Mariners MLB betting markets.
Best bet: Mariners F5 moneyline - tie no bet (-118)
Toronto's season is in a tailspin.
The Blue Jays currently sit at 39-48. They're 16 games back of the AL East lead and 8.5 games out of a wild-card spot. With the trade deadline less than a month away it's clear the team will be sellers come June 30.
Hitting has been the main issue but it doesn't help that Gasuman — who finished third in Cy Young voting last year — has blown up.
The fireballing righty carries a 4.75 ERA and 4.05 FIP into tonight's contest. He had a particularly tough June, posting a 5.65 ERA over six starts while giving up a whopping nine home runs. Opponents batted .248 against Gausman with a .794 OPS last month.
I don't trust him to keep things under wraps tonight, even with Seattle's offence in the mud.
The Mariners have had the worst batting average (.206) and 19th-ranked wRC+ (93) since June 1, according to FanGraphs. But the Blue Jays haven't been much better, sitting 19th in batting average(.236) and 18th in wRC+ (96), respectively.
Luis Castillo gets the ball for Seattle and he also hasn't been great lately. But the righty's home/away splits are worth diving into.
Castillo has a 3.19 ERA at T-Mobile Park and a 4.59 ERA away from home.
Key stat: Seattle is 21-16-8 on the F5 moneyline at home this year, per ATS.io.
Quick pick
Gausman under 6.5 strikeouts (+110): Let's start with the ugly: Seattle strikes out more than any team in MLB.
The Mariners' 28.1% K rate is on pace to be the highest of all time.
But Gausman has lost a step this year. His 23.1% K rate and 24.1% whiff rate rank in the 57th and 44th percentiles, respectively, and are 8.0 and 4.8 points lower than his 2023 numbers.
This is also a line Gausman has frequently fallen under. The righty has gone under this total in 13 of 17 starts this season (76.4%).
Picks made at 10:01 a.m. on 07/05/24.
