CFL Week 5 action kicks off on Thursday and I'm choosing three wagers from three different games.
The pregame narrative: The Calgary Stampeders travel to Montreal to take on the Alouettes and I'm expecting a grind-it-out low-scoring game. I'm also backing the Winnipeg Blue Bombers to get their first win and plenty of touchdowns out in Saskatchewan.
Check out the best CFL Week 5 picks for July 4-7.
CFL Week 5 picks
Best Bet: Alouettes/Stampeders under 50.5 (-110)
When you have an elite defence like the Montreal Alouettes do, it's easy to argue in favour of the under.
I don't think many realize just how good Montreal's defence is. No one has been able to crack the unit throughout a 12-game win streak dating back to Week 16 of last year.
During that span, the Als have held opposition to an average of 16.3 points, and are only allowing 18.3 points per game through the first four weeks.
That is elite stuff.
A big reason why I like the under is because the Stamps aren't far behind when it comes to defensive success. Calgary is allowing the second-fewest points per game (23) and the second-fewest passing yards per game (271.3).
Both Calgary and Montreal have combined to go over this total just once in 2024 so I'm backing them to stay under 50.5 points as a collective this week.
Key stat: No team has scored more than 24 points in a game against the Alouettes since the Toronto Argonauts did in Week 14 of 2023.
Quick picks
Blue Bombers moneyline (-155): It might seem crazy to pick one of the few winless teams without their starting quarterback but hear me out.
It's been an unprecedented start for the Bombers to start the 2024 season. Winnipeg starts with a 0-4 record for the first time since 2012 and has lost consecutive home games for the first time since 2018.
They have had the worst offence (and it's not particularly close) in the CFL, sitting last in points for (18.5), yards per game (307.3), and average yards per play (5.64).
The catalyst for the offensive struggles has been the highest-paid player in the league, Zach Collaros. He sits at the bottom in most passing categories and is the only starting quarterback to have not thrown a touchdown pass.
However, Collaros missed the entire second half last week and backup Chris Streveler performed well, dragging the Bombers to an overtime loss against the Stamps. Streveler completed 14 passes for 170 yards and a touchdown in one half of football.
Winnipeg will play host to Ottawa in their second meeting of the year. But this time, Streveler is at the helm. The Bombers are a hard team to beat twice in a row, especially at home where they have been great over the last half-decade.
Argonauts/Roughriders over 4.5 touchdowns (-143): I'm thinking there are going to be plenty of touchdowns to kick off the week in the prairies.
To start Week 5, two efficient offences going at it in a Toronto Argonauts vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders showdown.
Both teams sit inside the top half of the league in points, touchdowns, and yards per game heading into Week 5.
Both these teams are efficient at getting in the endzone. The Riders have gone over 4.5 total TD's in every one of their games this year, while the Argos have only failed to do so once this season against the stout Alouettes.
Picks made at 11:45 a.m. on 07/04/24.
