I've got three prop bets from today's MLB slate.
The pregame narrative: Trea Turner has been on a rampage at the plate and I'm backing him to score at plus money against Max Fried and the Atlanta Braves. Elsewhere, Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson should get the best of a plus matchup.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for July 5.
MLB prop bets
Go to full MLB prop betting markets.
Best Bet: Turner over 0.5 runs (+120)
This is a classic case of good versus great.
Fried carries a 2.91 ERA and 1.09 WHIP into tonight's contest. Those marks rank 10th and 20th, respectively, in MLB. He has held opponents to one or fewer earned runs in five of his last seven starts and has given up just three ER in his last 17.1 IP.
But Turner and the Philadelphia Phillies have terrorized the southpaw.
Philadelphia's lineup is hitting a combined .343 in 119 plate appearances against Fried with a measly 18.9% K rate, according to Baseball Savant.
Turner has led the charge slashing .385/.442/.539 in 39 career at-bats. That means he's getting on base nearly half the time he sees Fried. As the No. 2 hitter on the road team, he will have ample opportunities at the plate.
On top of that, the shortstop is on a tear right now.
Turner is hitting .333 since returning to the lineup on June 17 and is 9-for-18 with six runs scored in his last four games.
I expect him to get on base and then a murderer's row of Phillies to drive him home.
Key stat: Philadelphia has the eighth-best batting average (.261) and seventh-best wRC+ (117) against left-handed pitching this season.
Quick picks
Henderson over 0.5 runs (-117): Oakland Athletics starter Hogan Harris could be in lots of trouble tonight.
On a surface level, the southpaw's 3.18 ERA and .250 opponent BA seem great — but the advanced metrics are startling.
Harris' 5.52 xERA and .282 xBA rank in the seventh and eighth percentile, respectively. He also sits in the bottom third for whiff rate (20.9), K rate (18.3), and barrel rate (9.8).
In his last start, he allowed 10 hits and 11 baserunners in 3.1 IP against the Arizona Diamondbacks but that somehow only turned into three runs. That won't fly against the Baltimore Orioles.
Baltimore eats left-handed pitching alive and has the fourth-best wRC+ against lefties (122).
That all starts with Henderson getting on base.
The team's leadoff man has a .397 OBP versus LHP this year, which is 22 points higher than his mark against righties despite batting 44 points lower (.258 vs. .302).
Rutschman over 1.5 bases (+104): In a perfect world, Rutschman can cash both of these props with one swing of the bat.
The best catcher in MLB is slashing an otherworldly .400/.434/.629 against lefties this year.
He's hit just as many doubles (six) against southpaws as he has against righties in 120 fewer at-bats (225 to 105). And six of his 14 home runs have also come against LHP.
So why is this at plus money?
Well, Rutschman is hitless in his last four games. But he had a knock in six of eight games before that. This is a perfect matchup for him to bust out of a mini-slump.
Picks made at 11:27 a.m. ET on 07/05/2024.
