The Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners play out the rubber match of their series on Sunday.
The pregame narrative: A pair of one-run games set the stage for today's finale. Seattle is a strong under team and that's where my best bet lies. With offence likely being difficult to come by, the under on Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s total bases prop seems like a wise wager.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Mariners on July 7.
Blue Jays picks vs. Mariners
Go to full Blue Jays/Mariners MLB betting markets.
Best bet: Under 7.5 runs (-115)
The under is typically a really solid wager when one of Seattle's premier pitchers are on the mound.
George Kirby certainly fits the bill with how he's performing in 2024.
The Mariners starter has been excellent all season long. He combines a 3.32 ERA with a 2.98 FIP while opposing hitters are generating a minuscule .628 OPS against him.
Seattle has gone under this game total in six of Kirby's last eight starts.
Toronto counters with Jose Berrios and although he has been sporadic, the results have been largely solid. His 5.07 FIP is concerning but his 3.63 ERA shows his ability to generate quality outings despite less-than-stellar peripherals.
There's also the fact that neither of these teams boasts a competent offence. Toronto places an underwhelming 26th in runs per game (3.98) while Seattle is an even worse 27th (3.80).
This game should resemble the series opener between these two, a 2-1 win for the Mariners. Don't expect either side to have a banner day offensively.
Key stat: Seattle has the fifth-highest under percentage (57.0%) in baseball.
Quick pick
Guerrero under 1.5 total bases (-139): This wager is a logical extension of my best bet.
I've already explained how Kirby's dominance is integral to the under being my best bet. His dominance likely means Guerrero is held in check at the plate today.
Despite the Toronto star's recent run of strong results, he's only eclipsed this line twice in his last six games.
Guerrero's home-road splits also point toward this being a prime opportunity to fade him. The Blue Jays slugger is batting an impressive .318 at home compared to .273 on the road.
The small head-to-head sample size also favours the pitcher in this matchup. Guerrero only has one hit in six plate appearances against the righty.
Picks made at 10:31 a.m. on 07/07/24.
