Today features a huge serving of MLB prop bets, with six player recommendations.
The pregame narrative: It's a combination of three unders on pitchers Tarik Skubal, Carlos Carrasco and Austin Gomber. Plus, three overs on hitters Rafael Devers, Gunnar Henderson and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for August 2.
MLB prop bets
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Best bet: Skubal under 6.5 Ks (+100)
The Detroit Tigers ace has topped this line in 12 of his 21 starts and has a 30.0% K rate that ranks sixth among starters.
But two of the nine games he fell short came against his opponent tonight: the Kansas City Royals.
Skubal fanned six batters each time he faced Kansas City this season, once in April and then at the end of May.
What he'll be facing tonight is a team that ranks top 10 in wRC+ over the last 30 days and has the lowest K rate in the AL.
In July, the Royals got punched out at a ridiculously low 14.5% clip (the next closest team was 18.1%).
Key stat: The last starting pitcher to record seven-plus strikeouts against Kansas City was Oakland's Mitch Spence on June 20. Since then, 34 consecutive starters have gone under 6.5 Ks.
Pitching props
Carrasco under 15.5 outs (-139): The Cleveland Guardians right-hander has been one of the majors' worst starters and tonight he faces one of the league's best offences.
Carrasco gets the Baltimore Orioles, who are first in homers and ISO, as well as second in wRC+. They are one of three teams averaging five-plus runs per game.
Among 102 pitchers who have thrown at least 90 innings, Carrasco's 5.68 ERA is the second worst. The 37-year-old has allowed six-plus runs in back-to-back outings.
The under on this line has cashed in 13 of his 19 starts.
Gomber under 17.5 outs (-129): The Colorado Rockies got six innings out of Ryan Feltner last night and seven from Kyle Freeland the start before.
Cal Quantrill had a brief outing Tuesday (3.1 innings) but the club was off Monday. The point being: This bullpen has not been overworked this week.
This is a big line for Gomber to clear against a San Diego Padres team with the lowest K rate in the majors, the best batting average and the No. 5 offence by wRC+.
San Diego should hit the ball consistently against the low-strikeout lefty, greatly increasing the chances of big damage.
I'm happy to bank on that and a shorter outing. Gomber has completed six innings in fewer than half of his starts.
Hitter props
Henderson over 0.5 RBI (+128): Henderson will see Carrasco in a plus matchup for the Orioles superstar.
The shortstop is hitting .306 versus right-handers with a .976 OPS and 22 home runs. After batting leadoff for nearly every game this season, Henderson has recently moved to a more friendly run-producing spot.
He has hit No. 3 in five straight games, driving in a run in three of them. I also like him to top 1.5 total bases (-112 as of 1 p.m. ET).
Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (+106): This is another matchup that looks plus for the hot-hitting Toronto Blue Jays star.
Guerrero sees New York Yankees righty Marcus Stroman, who has a 5.28 ERA and 6.46 FIP since the start of June (nine starts).
Over that same stretch, Vladdy is hitting .337 with a 1.034 OPS, clubbing 16 of his 21 homers. Sign me up at plus money.
Devers over 1.5 total bases (-107): The Boston Red Sox star gets some juicy Texas Rangers pitching. First, he'll see highly hittable righty Jose Urena.
Then he gets a taxed bullpen that ranks 27th in ERA and has thrown more innings than all but one team over the last two weeks.
Devers is hitting .344/.428/.732 with 21 homers versus right-handers and has cleared this line in seven of his last eight games.
Picks made at 1:10 p.m. ET on 08/02/2024.
