The slumping Philadelphia Phillies hit the road to face the Seattle Mariners in a battle of two division leaders.
The pregame narrative: Despite losing six of their past seven games, the Phillies still have a hearty lead in the NL East. I'm backing Philly starter Tyler Phillips to clear his outs prop and Kyle Schwarber to score a run.
Check out my Phillies vs. Mariners props for Aug. 2.
Phillies vs. Mariners props
Go to full Phillies/Mariners betting markets.
Best Bet: Phillips over 17.5 outs (-112)
You probably don't know who Tyler Phillips is, but he's starting to put the league on notice just one month into his MLB career.
The former 15th-round pick debuted in a long-relief role on July 7, allowing one run while striking out seven over 4.0 innings.
Since then, the 26-year-old has slid into the rotation and shoved. He's coming off a shutout performance against the Guardians and now has a 1.80 ERA through four outings.
Also, Phillips has cleared this outs prop in all three of his starts.
That's a tiny sample, but it's good to know the Phillies already trust their inexperienced starter to work deeply into games. And he has a Grade-A matchup to do so again tonight.
Seattle isn't an offensive powerhouse, as evidenced by its 95 wRC+ as a team. And the Mariners' home stadium, T-Mobile Park, is the least offence-friendly venue in the majors, per Baseball Savant.
Phillips has primarily relied on sweepers and sinkers so far, throwing those pitches more than 60.0% of the time. Seattle hasn't fared well against those offerings, which is one more reason to think Phillips can collect enough outs to cash this bet.
Key stat: Seattle has a .235/.323/.368 slash line against sinkers and sweepers, per Baseball Savant. That .368 SLG ranks 27th in MLB.
Quick pick
Schwarber over 0.5 runs (-121): Seattle starter Bryan Woo (4-1, 2.35 ERA) doesn't allow a ton of runs, but I think his severe lefty/righty splits make this prop worth a flier.
Look at how much worse Woo has performed against left-handed hitters compared to righties:
- vs. LHH (110 plate appearances): .248/.282/.400 slash line, 13.6% K rate
- vs. RHH (98 plate appearances): .170/.194/.202 slash line, 22.4% K rate
Schwarber has never faced Woo, but I'm hoping he can take advantage of these splits as a lefty hitter who's on a roll right now.
Over his past 35 games, Schwarber has scored 27 runs and posted a 1.013 OPS. The Phillies' leadoff man walks a ton and hits the ball as hard as anybody (55.6% hard-hit rate, 98th percentile in MLB).
Picks made at 2:10 p.m. ET 08/02/2024.
