Offence is the name of the game for Wednesday's MLB prop bets.
The pregame narrative: The New York Mets are red-hot and Francesco Lindor has been thriving as the team's leadoff man. I'm backing him to score in a plus matchup and am also targeting Yordan Alvarez and Aaron Judge.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for July 3.
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Best Bet: Lindor over 0.5 runs (-130)
Lindor has had some tough stretches with the Mets but this isn't one of them.
New York is a league-best 18-8 since July 1, leading MLB in batting average (.281) and wRC+ (147).
The team's leadoff man has been at the forefront of its offensive explosion. Lindor is batting .291/.347/.536 during this heater while scoring 23 runs. He's crossed the plate 10 times in his last 10 games, cashing this prop in eight of those contests.
On the road against the Washington Nationals, he'll have ample opportunities to get on base and score.
The Nats are trotting out rookie southpaw Mitchell Parker who is having a solid campaign. The 24-year-old owns a 3.32 ERA and 1.12 WHIP but his underlying numbers are worth looking into.
Parker's 3.95 xERA and .250 xBA rank in the 48th and 42nd percentile, respectively, per Baseball Savant.
He also has a 32nd percentile K rate (19.6%) and an 82nd percentile BB rate (5.6%). That means plenty of balls are getting put into play.
Lindor has a .352 OBP against southpaws this year and the rest of the Mets' lineup has been murdering lefties lately. Expect him to get on and score.
Key stat: New York is hitting .317 with a 167 wRC+ against LHP since June 1. Both of those lead MLB.
Quick picks
Alvarez over 1.5 bases (-103): Toronto Blue Jays starter Yusei Kikuchi must have nightmares about this Houston Astros lineup.
In 101 plate appearances, the Stros are collectively hitting .298 against the southpaw with a paltry 13.9% K rate, per Baseball Savant.
Alvarez has been one of the biggest bullies, going 7-for-22 against Kikuchi with two home runs and two doubles.
The left-handed slugger runs reverse splits and is batting .346./400/.542 against LHP this season. He's also gone over this mark in five of his last six games.
Judge over 1.5 bases (-115): Judge is steamrolling his way to a second AL MVP.
The New York Yankees centre fielder leads MLB in HR (32), RBI (83) and OPS (1.158) and is third in batting average (.321). He's recorded four straight multi-hit games and has cleared this prop in six of his last seven.
Backing Judge to go over 1.5 bases at this price is a good idea on most nights. But on the road, against a fastball-dominant lefty — that's music to my ears.
Judge's 242 wRC+ and 1.254 OPS versus southpaws are both the second-best in MLB.
Andrew Abbott of the Cincinnati Reds throws a fastball 55% of the time. Judge is hitting .333 against fastballs thrown by lefties with a 70.0% hard-hit rate. For context, his normal 63.1% hard-hit ranks in the 100th percentile of all batters.
Picks made at 9:25 a.m. ET on 07/03/2024.
