The Boston Red Sox look to punch back after a series-opening loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The pregame narrative: Boston lost 4-1 on Friday but I expect Saturday's game to look much different. Red Sox run line and the over are the wagers I'm making on the game. Rafael Devers' hot stick has me eyeing the over on his total bases prop.
Check out the full Red Sox vs. Dodgers SGP picks for the July 20 matchup.
Red Sox vs. Dodgers SGP picks
Go to full Red Sox/Dodgers betting markets.
Parlay: Red Sox +1.5 + Over 8.5 runs + Devers over 1.5 total bases (+335)
Red Sox +1.5 (-180): A four-run eighth inning was the catalyst for Los Angeles' victory on Friday, but I'm still not sold that the team is fully back.
It's important to remember that the Dodgers were struggling before the All-Star break. They had lost six of their final seven before the pause, failing to cover this number in any of those games.
Boston, meanwhile, was rolling. It had won and covered this spread in 10 of 13 before the break.
The Red Sox have thrived as an away ATS underdog this season, too. They're a strong 20-11 in that scenario.
Other parlay picks
Over 8.5 runs (-148): Neither pitcher should inspire confidence in bettors.
Los Angeles turns to the inexperienced Justin Wrobleski and his first two starts were far from impressive. His 6.30 ERA and 7.97 FIP are the results of his inability to keep the ball in the park.
Wrobleski has allowed four home runs in his pair of appearances.
That's a nasty trait to carry into a game against a Boston team that ranks eighth in homers (7.97).
Pitching concerns rightfully surround the Red Sox in this game, too. Brayan Bello gets the ball and his 5.32 ERA and 4.61 FIP illustrate his struggles in 2024.
The over on this total has cashed in 10 of his last 11 outings.
Devers over 1.5 total bases (+123): Thirdly, Devers is a good pick to stay hot in this matchup.
The Red Sox superstar has been hitting the cover off the ball over the last month. He's slashing an absurd .342/.405/.747 since June 21 with three doubles, a triple and nine homers.
Naturally, he's surpassing this line fairly frequently over this stretch. He's cleared 1.5 total bases in 11 of 21 games (52.4%) over the last 30 days.
Devers is slugging an eye-popping .595 this year (3rd in MLB). I like his chances of connecting against a pitcher in Wrobleski who carries a .991 opponent OPS mark into this contest.
Picks as of 12:44 p.m. on 07/20/2024.
