The Toronto Blue Jays aim to snap their three-game losing streak on Saturday.
The pregame narrative: A poor pitching duel between Toronto and the Seattle Mariners makes the over a strong wager. Additionally, the former continues to lose games on the margins which is why the latter serves as my moneyline pick.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Mariners on July 6.
Blue Jays picks vs. Mariners
Go to full Blue Jays/Mariners MLB betting markets.
Best bet: Over 8 runs (-121)
Conventional wisdom would advise against this pick.
Toronto ranks a pitiful 26th in runs per game (3.97) while Seattle actually slots in lower at 27th (3.80). The latter sits first in the AL West, however, thanks to a team ERA that is tied for fourth in the majors (3.53).
But the Mariners aren't turning to one of their better starters on Saturday.
Emerson Hancock gets the ball and he's struggling to produce quality outings. He combines a 4.79 ERA with a 5.68 FIP and the over on this total has cashed in four of his eight starts.
The Blue Jays counter with Yariel Rodriguez and he's been shaky in his first MLB campaign. His 4.63 ERA and 4.66 ERA are troublesome marks.
Toronto has pushed or gone over this mark in three of his six appearances.
The bigger issue with Rodriguez is that he typically doesn't work deep into games. The righty has worked past the fourth inning just once this year and adding stress to an injury-riddled Blue Jays bullpen isn't helping matters.
Key stat: Toronto has the second-highest bullpen ERA (4.76) in MLB. It has gone over this number or pushed in 13 of its last 15 contests.
Quick pick
Mariners moneyline (-114): One team does everything right on the margins and the other doesn't.
If this turns into a bullpen game, I trust the Mariners to piece together a win. They're at least a respectable 13th in reliever ERA this season (3.73).
Seattle's home-road splits are extremely stark, favouring the former. It's an impressive 30-16 at T-Mobile Park and an abysmal 19-25 as a visitor.
The Mariners have won 11 of their last 16 outings at home.
Toronto is a brutal 18-25 on the road and an uninspiring 26-40 against teams above .500 this year.
The Blue Jays have dropped seven of their last nine away games.
Picks made at 10:18 a.m. on 07/06/24.
