The Toronto Blue Jays split yesterday's doubleheader with the Baltimore Orioles and are back at it for game three of four at Camden Yards.
The pregame narrative: Chris Bassitt gets the ball for Toronto, assuming he's not dealt ahead of today's 6 p.m. ET trade deadline. He starts opposite AL Cy Young candidate Corbin Burnes and I expect Baltimore's ace to shove.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Orioles on July 30.
Blue Jays picks vs. Orioles
Go to full Blue Jays/Orioles MLB betting markets.
Best Bet: Burnes over 18.5 outs (+100)
Burnes enters today's contest with a 2.45 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and the second-shortest odds (+250) to win the AL Cy Young.
The 29-year-old righty has been remarkably consistent. He's logged at least 18.0 outs, or 6.0 IP, in 16 straight starts dating back to April 26.
During that run, Burnes has cleared this mark seven times, including against the Jays on June 4.
In that game, he allowed just one earned run in 7.0 innings of four-hit ball. Burnes gave up one earned run in 6.0 innings in his other start against the Jays this year.
Toronto's offence has been better lately but I still expect him to have another strong outing.
That's because Burnes seldom gives up hard contact.
His 31.3% hard-hit rate ranks in the 94th percentile, according to Baseball Savant, while his 49.7% ground ball rate ranks in the 81st percentile. Burnes' 1.02 HR/9 mark ranks 26th in MLB.
The hard-throwing righty relies on either a fastball or sinker 51% of the time which sits at 95 mph. Toronto owns a .236 BA and .353 SLG against that type of offering this year.
The Jays have also hit the fourth fewest home runs (100) in MLB.
I can't see Toronto putting up a big inning without the long ball and that means Burnes should be able to cruise without much trouble.
Key stat: Burnes has held Toronto's lineup to a collective .219 batting average in 39 plate appearances, according to Baseball Savant.
Quick pick
Baltimore F5 -0.5 (-134): Baltimore should take an early lead and not let go.
The team is 60-47 on the F5 run line this year, according to EV Analytics, and has cashed this bet in 10 of Burnes' last 13 starts. That includes both of his outings against Toronto.
Bassitt has been in a bad place lately after a strong May and June.
He owns a 6.23 ERA over four starts in July, giving up a combined 35 hits and walks in 21.2 innings pitched (1.65 WHIP).
The O's offence is loaded with talent and has already abused the righty.
Baltimore's lineup is hitting .359 against Bassitt in 42 plate appearances. He hasn't faced the O's yet this year but Toronto was 0-2 against this line when he started against them in 2023.
Picks made at 8:34 a.m. on 07/30/24.
