Riding a five-game win streak to the top of the AL East, the New York Yankees host the Toronto Blue Jays tonight to begin their final series of the 2024 season.
The pregame narrative: Toronto and New York have split their season series, 5-5, to this point. The Yankees are heavy favourites tonight, but my eyes are on the over rather than picking a side. In the player prop market, I'm jumping on a plus-money play for Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Yankees on Aug. 2.
Blue Jays picks vs. Yankees
Go to full Blue Jays/Yankees MLB betting markets.
Best Bet: Over 9 runs (-103)
This was my exact wager in the Blue Jays/Orioles series finale on Wednesday and it cashed easily. The over is now 7-1-1 at this number in Toronto's past nine games, with an average game total of 11.4 runs in that span.
On the season, the Jays are hitting the over at the fifth-highest rate in MLB (59-47-3, 55.7%).
Oh, and the Yankees have done even better. The over is 61-45-4 in their games — good for the second-highest overs rate (57.6%).
Tonight's pitching matchup between Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman might not seem overs-friendly at first, but neither pitcher is at his best right now. Look at the numbers over their past seven starts:
| Pitcher | ERA | Opponent OPS | Average game total |
| Gausman | 5.04 | .692 | 8.9 runs |
| Stroman | 5.56 | .883 | 12.6 runs |
The Yankees have the league's highest-scoring offence (5.2 runs/game) and are remarkably familiar with Gausman. New York's current roster has a combined 236 plate appearances against him, which is easily the most of any pitcher-versus-team matchup today.
This season, the Yankees have plated 14 runs off Gausman in just 10.2 innings.
Combining New York's elite offence with some questionable trends for both starting pitchers makes this a very compelling wager.
Key stat: Since June, eight of Stroman's nine starts have gone over 9 runs.
Quick picks
Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+108): At this point, why is Guerrero still seeing plus-money odds on his bases prop? My guess is because he doesn't have great numbers against Stroman (3-for-12, two strikeouts, zero extra-base hits).
Frankly, that doesn't mean much to me compared to Guerrero's recent dominance. Here's what he's done over his past 14 games:
- .500/.557/1.096 slash line
- 15 extra-base hits
- Over 1.5 bases in 11/14 games
His post-all-star-break wRC+ (332) is the best in MLB. And as mentioned above, he's catching Stroman at a good time.
Stroman has an .887 opponent OPS over his past nine starts.
Another plus is that Vladdy rakes at Yankee Stadium. He has a .910 OPS in that ballpark in 39 games.
Giancarlo Stanton over 0.5 RBI (+132): Stanton is looking for his first RBI since returning to the Yankees' lineup a few games ago. I say he gets it tonight.
The 34-year-old is still one of baseball's elite mashers, placing in the 94th percentile for expected SLG (.529) and in the 98th percentile for barrel rate (19.1%).
Assuming he's in his typical heart-of-the-order batting spot tonight, I love his chances to drive in a run.
Ahead of him are Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, who have tormented Gausman and should find ways to reach base. Judge and Soto are collectively 18-for-50 (.360) with 19 walks against Toronto's starter.
Stanton has hit Gausman well, too, batting 7-for-19 (.368) with a double and two home runs. Prior to his injury, Stanton had posted a .927 OPS in June (18 games), so hopefully he can regain that form.
Picks made at 10:20 a.m. on 08/02/24.
