Canada controls its destiny in Group A of the Olympic men's basketball tournament, and the squad is heavily favoured to take down Spain in Friday's group stage finale.
The pregame narrative: The Canadians have already secured their spot in the quarterfinals, and now the focus is on improving their seeding. Spain should be quite hungry in Friday's matchup — a loss puts the Spaniards at great risk of bowing out.
Check out our Canada vs. Spain odds and a best bet for the Aug. 2 game.
Canada vs. Spain odds
Click linked odds to add selection to your betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.
| Canada vs. Spain markets | Betting odds |
| Canada moneyline | -500 |
| Spain moneyline | +360 |
| Canada -9.5 | -110 |
| Spain +9.5 | -110 |
| Over 168.5 points | -110 |
| Under 168.5 points | -110 |
Go to full Canada vs. Spain betting markets.
Best Bet: Under 168.5 points (-110)
A -500 moneyline bet on Canada is out of the question here, and I'm hesitant to back either side against the spread.
Canada's two wins have come by exactly 10 points, so laying 9.5 points with the favourites is a somewhat risky proposition. And Spain — the No. 2 men's team based on FIBA's February 2024 rankings — is no slouch at the international level. Spain has medalled in three of the previous four Olympics and won gold at EuroBasket 2022 (i.e., the European championships).
So instead, I'm leaning into the under for a matchup that will hopefully have an elimination-type atmosphere.
Spain, which needs to win to rest easy about advancing to the quarterfinals, is capable of playing a low-scoring style.
Since the start of Olympic qualifiers on July 2, Spain has gone under this total in five of eight matchups.
As for Canada, three of its five international matchups in July have hit this under.
Pace and playing style are major factors when it comes to over/unders. Case in point: Canada and Spain both cleared a 168.5-point total in recent matchups against Australia and Puerto Rico, but they both went under a 168.5-point total against Greece.
Now matched up together, I think this game will feature a fair amount of defence. Especially from Canada's side of the court.
A key to Spain's offence has been its efficient 3-point shooting (39.7%). But Canada's main defensive strength is its ability to defend the perimeter with players like Dillon Brooks, Luguentz Dort and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
If Canada can put the clamps on Spain's outside shooters, the under will definitely be in play.
Key stat: The average total in Spain's eight July games was 165.5 points.
