The St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs embark on their final series of the season tonight at Wrigley Field.
The pregame narrative: Neither Sonny Gray nor Shota Imanaga have been at their best recently, but they still form a compelling matchup on the mound tonight. I like Gray to rack up strikeouts tonight but I'm backing Imanaga's Cubs on an alt run line.
Check out the full Cardinals vs. Cubs SGP picks for the Aug. 1 matchup.
Cardinals vs. Cubs SGP picks
Go to full Cardinals/Cubs betting markets.
Parlay: Cubs +2.5 + Gray over 5.5 Ks + Happ over 0.5 hits + Contreras over 0.5 hits (+475)
Cubs +2.5 (-162): Over his past seven starts, Imanaga has a 4.65 ERA. But that's a misleading stat.
The former NPB star was tagged for 10 runs in just 3.0 innings against the Mets in late June, and that one blowup has clouded what has otherwise been a solid run.
In five starts since then, Imanaga has a 2.93 ERA and a .217 opponent batting average. He also had a stellar outing against the Cardinals in mid-June: 7.0 innings, four hits, one run, six Ks.
This is a run line the Cubs have covered in 17 of Imanaga's 19 starts. That has a lot to do with the fact that he's allowed three or fewer earned runs in 17 of 19 starts.
Other parlay picks
Gray over 5.5 Ks (-162): There's too much juice for me to back this as a solo wager, but I like the idea of pairing it with one other item to get to plus-money territory. And I really like it in this SGP.
Gray is having a nice season, but he's been excellent as a strikeout producer. His 11.1 K/9 ranks sixth among MLB pitchers — ahead of guys like Tarik Skubal, Cole Ragans and Luis Gil.
In 19 starts, Gray has cashed this line 16 times — including both outings against the Cubs. He's averaging 7.3 Ks per start, too.
It makes sense that Gray has gone over 5.5 Ks in both starts against Chicago. The Cubs have the 11th-highest K rate (23.3%) in the majors.
Ian Happ over 0.5 hits (-180): He's known more for power than contact hitting, but Happ should be able to come away with a hit of some kind tonight.
The outfielder was recently bumped into the Cubs' leadoff spot, which maximizes his opportunity. He has a .273/.374/.583 slash line over his past 40 games.
Happ also has the best history against Gray, going 7-for-16 (.438) with three doubles and a home run.
Gray has been giving hits out like free candy lately, too, with 39 allowed over his past 28.1 innings (.331 opponent BA in that span).
William Contreras over 0.5 hits (-210): The Cardinals struggle against left-handed pitchers as a whole, but that doesn't apply to Contreras.
The catcher is batting .314 against lefties this season and .274 against them in his career (versus a .253 BA against righties). He's never faced Imanaga before, but one hit seems like a reasonable ask for Contreras after a strong July.
In the past month, Contreras posted a .914 OPS and cashed this bet in 20 of 24 starts.
Contreras has a sky-high walk rate (13.5%, 97th percentile), which could be a problem. But Imanaga has the lowest BB/9 in the National League, so I expect Contreras to be forced to swing away.
Picks as of 11:10 a.m. on 08/01/2024.
