Two Colorado Rockies and Cleveland Guardians star Jose Ramirez make up Thursday's MLB prop recommendations.
The pregame narrative: Ramirez is punishing southpaws and will see one tonight. I also like Ryan Feltner and Charlie Blackmon to deliver in Colorado's nightcap against the Los Angeles Angels.
Check out why in the best MLB prop bets for August 1.
MLB prop bets
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Best bet: Feltner over 4.5 Ks (-129)
Feltner gets an unimposing Angels club that ranks 24th in wRC+ on the season and finished 29th in July in the same category.
The righty is 1-10 with a 4.99 ERA and 1.41 WHIP, but he's been better than those stats illustrate.
Feltner is already at 1.7 WAR, per FanGraphs, which puts him on pace to turn in an above-average season while pitching his home games at Coors Field (he's on the road tonight, where his ERA is two runs lower than in Denver).
His FIP (4.19) and xFIP (4.10) are both a solid amount better than his ERA and hovering right at league average.
He has a big swing-and-miss changeup and an improved curveball that he's missing bats with to accompany a fastball that reaches the upper 90s. Those three pitches have helped him post a career-best K rate that has been climbing throughout the season.
Feltner made five starts in July and cleared this line four times while putting up a 2.51 ERA. He has six-plus Ks in four consecutive outings and has a K/9 rate of 8.68 since the start of June.
Key stat: Feltner is 7-2 vs. a 4.5 line over his last nine starts.
Quick picks
Blackmon over 0.5 runs (+105): Sticking with the Rockies, there's some tremendous value on their player props today.
For instance, Ezequiel Tovar, who has a 1.198 OPS over a 17-game hitting streak, is +135 to top 1.5 total bases. That was my only player prop recommendation that didn't hit yesterday. And while I like it again today, I like this even more.
Blackmon is showing he still has something left, hitting at least .260 and getting on base at a .350 clip or greater in each of the last three months.
He hits in front of Tovar and Brenton Doyle (1.194 OPS in July), who's also one of the hottest hitters in the game.
As long as Blackmon can get on base — something he did in 17 of the 18 games he started in July — he'll have a good chance to score versus untrustworthy Angels starter Carson Fulmer.
Ramirez over 0.5 RBI (+120): Ramirez's Guardians see left-hander Trevor Rogers for his debut with the Baltimore Orioles.
Cleveland sports a top-10 offence versus lefties, by wRC+, and Ramirez trails only MVP favourite Aaron Judge for the MLB lead in RBI.
Ramirez has driven in 87 runs in 104 games and has been one of the game's best at punishing southpaws, ranking first in slugging (.719), second in average (.367) and second in wRC+ (210).
Rogers turned his season around with a couple of solid months before the Miami Marlins shipped him to Baltimore but the 26-year-old gives up a lot of hits, too many walks and doesn't miss enough bats.
That's not a combination I trust against a good Guardians offence. Ramirez should have an opportunity to do damage with runners on base and I like him to capitalize on it.
Picks made at 1:00 p.m. ET on 08/01/2024.
