There's a blockbuster pitching matchup out west tonight, as Dylan Cease faces Clayton Kershaw.
The pregame narrative: Cease threw a no-hitter last time out and has been practically untouchable over his past three starts for the San Diego Padres. In this +230 same-game parlay, I'm backing Cease's strikeouts prop and Manny Machado's hits prop while fading Los Angeles Dodgers slugger Teoscar Hernandez.
Check out the full Dodgers vs. Padres SGP picks for the July 31 matchup.
Dodgers vs. Padres SGP picks
Go to full Dodgers/Padres betting markets.
Parlay: Cease over 7.5 Ks + Hernandez under 1.5 bases + Machado over 0.5 hits (+230)
Cease over 7.5 Ks (-159): The Padres should be ecstatic about the early returns from their Cease trade back in March.
The 2022 AL Cy Young runner-up is pitching his way onto the NL ballot right now, with just two hits allowed and 30 Ks over his past three starts. He no-hit the Washington Nationals last week and should carve again tonight.
Cease leads the majors in Ks (168), averaging 7.6 Ks per outing. And he's cashed this prop in six of his past seven starts.
Last season, Cease struck out 10 Dodgers over just 5.1 innings of work. His 32.5% K rate is among the best in the bigs and it means he should have an excellent shot at clearing this total.
Other parlay picks
Hernandez under 1.5 bases (-245): The recent Home Run Derby champ is going through a bit of a power outage. This seems like the right time to fade him.
Over his past seven games, Hernandez is 5-for-27 (.185) with one extra-base hit and 10 strikeouts.
He's having a nice season, but I'm not counting on Hernandez snapping his mini-slump against someone as hot as Cease.
Keep in mind that Hernandez is 0-for-5 with three strikeouts in his career against Cease.
Machado over 0.5 hits (-210): Machado has a huge sample size against Kershaw, which is part of why I'm backing the six-time all-star to get a hit.
In 41 career plate appearances against Kershaw, Machado is 13-for-40 (.325) with four homers and a double.
Asking for one hit from Machado doesn't really seem like much. He has at least one hit in 68 of 100 starts this season and is batting .302 in his past 35 games.
Picks as of 2:25 p.m. on 07/23/2024.
