I'm targeting three hitters on the same market for Wednesday's top MLB props.
The pregame narrative: The hitters are Elly De La Cruz, Manny Machado and Ezequiel Tovar. I like each of them to clear 1.5 bases.
Check out why in the best MLB prop bets for July 31.
MLB prop bets
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Best bet: De La Cruz over 1.5 bases (-104)
This was a plus-money play this morning but is still a great option at this price as far as I'm concerned.
De La Cruz and the Cincinnati Reds have one of the juiciest matchups of Wednesday's slate — a date with Chicago Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks.
The veteran right-hander enters with a 6.95 ERA across 19 appearances (14 starts) and has awful swing-and-miss metrics.
Expect the ball to be put in play often, increasing the chances for hits to drop. Only five pitchers who have thrown as many innings as Hendricks allow more contact, per FanGraphs.
Cruz does his best work against right-handers and has enjoyed a tremendous July.
- vs. RHP: .278/.356/.536, 142 wRC+
- July stats: .301/.383/.554, 156 wRC+
On top of that, the game is at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, the No. 1 home run-hitting venue in the majors.
Cruz has big pop (18 homers) and takes advantage of his home park, with better numbers across all three slash categories to accompany an .872 OPS.
Key stat: Cruz has a .904 OPS in nine contests since the MLB All-Star Game.
Quick picks
Tovar over 1.5 bases (+120): This is monster value on a player who's been hitting nearly as good as anyone in the majors over the last three weeks.
The Colorado Rockies shortstop started the month by going 0-for-28 over a seven-game stretch. Since then, he's done this:
- 16-game hitting streak
- .435/.440/.797 slash line
- 6 HR, 15 R, 15 RBI
Tovar is third in MLB in average and eighth in OPS over that stretch, clearing this line 11 times. He hits either first or second in the order, maximizing his trips to the plate.
And he should see a good amount tonight against the Los Angeles Angels, who are starting Davis Daniel (5.11 ERA in Triple-A and seven-plus hits, five-plus runs allowed in each of his last two MLB starts).
Machado over 1.5 bases (+132): I don't get caught up in pitcher vs. hitter matchups too much, but I like how often Machado has seen tonight's Los Angeles Dodgers starter, Clayton Kershaw.
The San Diego Padres third baseman has 41 career plate appearances against Kershaw and produced a line of .325/.342/.650 with four homers.
What helps reinforce the pick is that Machado has slugged greater than .500 in back-to-back months amid a disappointing season overall.
Machado entered June with a .241/.293/.361 batting line. He's up to .265/.317/.432, raising his OPS by nearly 100 points and hitting 11 of 16 homers over the past two months.
This marks Kershaw's second start of the season. He allowed six hits and a lot of hard contact over four innings in his season debut. Five balls were struck at 100-plus mph, according to Baseball Savant.
Picks made at 1:15 p.m. ET on 07/31/2024.
