I'm backing three pitchers to clear their strikeout totals on Sunday.
The pregame narrative: Logan Gilbert gets the slumping Philadelphia Phillies, while Los Angeles Dodgers rookie River Ryan should torch the Oakland Athletics. Finally, take Simeon Woods Richardson against the league-worst Chicago White Sox.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for Aug. 4.
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Best Bet: Gilbert over 6.5 strikeouts (-115)
Philadelphia was an incredibly tough out for most of the year.
But lately, the Phillies offence has dried up, especially against right-handed pitching. Since July 1 the team ranks 24th in K rate (24.8%), 26th in batting average (.224), and 28th in wRC+ (85) vs. RHP.
Gilbert got stung for seven earned runs in 2.2 IP his last time out against the Boston Red Sox, but he's a more-than-capable strikeout arm.
He cleared this line in three straight starts before that and has an 84th-percentile whiff rate (30.1) to pair with a 70th-percentile K rate (25.1), per Baseball Savant.
Those numbers are even better in his limited meetings with the Phillies' lineup.
Gilbert has held Philadelphia to a .212 BA with a 33.3% K rate in 54 combined plate appearances.
Seattle's righty should pitch deep into this game and that will give him ample opportunities to clear this mark.
Key stat: Gilbert is averaging 6.8 strikeouts across his last five starts.
Quick picks
Ryan over 4.5 strikeouts (-122): Ryan has made just two MLB starts — but he dominated in both of them.
The fireballing 25-year-old threw 5.1 innings of shutout ball in his debut against the San Francisco Giants. He only had two strikeouts in that game but logged eight in his next start against the Houston Astros (5.2 IP, 1 ER).
Houston has the third-lowest K rate in MLB (18.8%) while today's opponents, the Athletics, rank 28th (25.3%).
Ryan posted a stellar 11.8 K/9 rate in the minor leagues this year. This should be very doable.
Woods Richardson over 4.5 strikeouts (-129): Unlike Gilbert and Ryan, Woods Richardson isn't a big strikeout arm.
The former Toronto Blue Jay prospect ranks in the 22nd percentile for whiff rate (21.7%) and 35th percentile for K rate (20.5%).
But the good news is he's playing the White Sox, who can hardly be considered an MLB team anymore.
Chicago has lost 19 straight games. During that span, it has the fourth-highest K rate (26.8%) and by far the worst wRC+ (49).
Woods Richardson has had at least four strikeouts in 10 of his last 11 starts. He's cleared this mark five times in that span.
Picks made at 9:56 a.m. ET on 08/04/2024.
