Two plus-money props are on deck as fourth of July baseball rolls on.
The pregame narrative: Fourth of July action rounds out with two Thursday night games. Firstly, I'm fading Shohei Ohtani in his matchup with Arizona Diamondbacks' ace Zac Gallen. Elsewhere, I'm riding with a red-hot Christian Yelich at Coors Field.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for July 4.
MLB prop bets
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Best Bet: Ohtani under 0.5 runs (+112):
There aren't many pitchers around the league who can say they have Ohtani's number.
However, that's the case with Gallen who has held the Japanese megastar hitless in a small three-at-bat sample size.
I put more stock into the fact that two of those outs came via strikeout which shows Ohtani's lack of ability to read Gallen thus far.
Now, this could flip in an instance as the 29-year-old is one of if, not the best hitters in baseball and realistically no pitcher is safe.
But I'm willing to take a stab at this prop at plus-money with Arizona's ace taking the mound.
Ohtani is the worst statistically against the breaking ball throughout his career and Gallen has a nasty curveball that he throws 26% of the time.
If he struggles to get on base tonight, it'll be hard to cross home plate and I'm taking the risk.
Key stat: Last season, the left-handed slugger hit .233 against breaking balls with a 40.3% whiff rate, per Baseball Savant.
Quick picks
Yelich over 0.5 RBIs (+108): As I alluded to in my MLB parlay for today, Yelich has been scorching hot at the dish.
In the first three games of this series at Coors Field, the 2018 NL MVP hit the cover off of the baseball.
He's recorded seven hits with four of those going for extra bases.
Surprisingly, that production has led to only one RBI (a solo home run yesterday) but I expect that to change if the efficiency at the plate remains the same.
It's worth taking a shot at these odds. At the very least you're getting a streaking veteran hitter in the friendliest of ballparks.
Cal Quantrill has been cold as well lately. Over his past three starts, he's given up 21 hits and 11 earned runs.
Yelich is 1-for-1 off of the Rockies' ace and I'm expecting him to be an offensive force in tonight's game.
Picks made at 2:11 p.m. ET on 07/04/2024.
