With the way the Minnesota Twins are hitting right now, it's easy to gravitate to their player prop markets.
The pregame narrative: I'm backing Willi Castro to score in Wednesday's late-night showdown against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Earlier on, I have props for Erick Fedde and CJ Abrams.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for Wednesday, June 26.
MLB prop bets
Go to full MLB prop betting markets.
Best bet: Abrams over 0.5 runs (+128)
The over/under for today's Washington Nationals vs. San Diego Padres game is just 7.5 runs. But if anyone is going to make something happen on offence (at least on the Nationals' side), it'll likely be CJ Abrams.
The Padres' former first-round pick — who was shipped to DC in the 2022 Juan Soto trade — has exploded in his third MLB season. Abrams ranks 26th in wRC+ (133), and he has multiple hits in five of his past six games.
As the leadoff man, Abrams is typically in the best position to score among Nationals hitters. But he has as much power as a middle-of-the-lineup bat.
Abrams' .535 SLG as a leadoff batter ranks fourth in MLB.
Tonight, Abrams will face a slumping Dylan Cease for the very first time. Over Cease's past eight starts, he has a 6.43 ERA and an .850 opponent OPS.
So not only is Abrams blazing hot, but he's catching Cease at a good time. To me, that makes this plus-money price look like a great value.
Key stat: Abrams has scored in 12 of his past 16 games, posting a 1.185 OPS in that span.
Quick picks
Fedde over 17.5 outs (-115): Fedde draws the short straw of facing the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight, but I think he can at least be a meat shield for six innings.
The right-hander has been excellent in his first MLB season following a quick stint in the KBO. Through 16 starts, he has a 3.05 ERA and a 3.53 FIP.
Fedde has averaged 17.7 outs per start and cleared this total in nine of his past 12 — including four in a row at home.
Even without Mookie Betts, the Dodgers have a ferocious roster. But Fedde has held the active lineup to a .222 BA and .390 SLG in 59 at-bats, per Baseball Savant, so there's some solid precedent here.
Castro over 0.5 runs (-107): The Twins have tried Castro in eight of nine batting order spots, but he's making a nice case to stick at the leadoff position.
Since he first got a chance to bat leadoff on June 10, Castro has posted a .351/.403/.597 slash line in 14 games (13 starts). And he's scored in nine of those 13 starts.
The Twins are wielding MLB's hottest offence right now, with a .930 team OPS over the past two weeks. As long as Castro continues getting on base, there should be plenty of capable hitters behind him to plate a run.
Castro and the Twins face Arizona Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson, who has a 5.36 ERA and .860 opponent OPS since the start of May.
Picks made at 11:25 a.m. ET on 06/26/2024.
