The Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers close the book on their season series with a primetime Sunday Night Baseball matchup.
The pregame narrative: Kutter Crawford is on a roll for the Red Sox, who are trying to avoid a sweep to begin the second half. I think Crawford gives Boston an edge in the first-five-inning market against L.A.'s James Paxton.
Check out my Red Sox vs. Dodgers picks for Sunday Night Baseball on July 21.
Red Sox vs. Dodgers picks
Go to full Red Sox/Dodgers betting markets.
Best Bet: Red Sox F5 moneyline - tie no bet (-105)
When a pitching matchup looks a bit lopsided, I tend to at least glance at the F5 moneyline odds. In this case, I like what I see on Boston's side.
Crawford is on a heater this month, so hopefully the all-star break doesn't cool him down. In 20.0 innings so far in July, Crawford has allowed just 10 hits (.147 opponent BA) and one run (0.45 ERA).
This season has been a bit of a rollercoaster for Crawford. He had a 1.75 ERA in his first eight starts, a 5.44 ERA in his next eight starts, and now he seems to be finding his way again.
All in all, he's quite capable of keeping Boston in this game at the halfway mark. He's tossed six consecutive quality starts (six-plus innings and three or fewer earned runs allowed).
Paxton, meanwhile, is hoping the all-star break can serve as a reset. Over his past three starts, he allowed 14 runs and 21 hits in just 12.2 innings.
Baseball Savant doesn't paint a rosy picture of Paxton. He ranks in the 20th percentile or worse in xERA (4.82), chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout rate and walk rate.
Los Angeles is 3-4-2 on the F5 moneyline in Paxton's past nine starts.
The Red Sox lost on Friday and Saturday ... but they won on the F5 moneyline in both games. Crawford should help them get there again tonight.
Key stat: Boston (51-36-10) has a better F5 moneyline record than L.A. (48-41-10), per ATS.io.
Quick picks
Crawford over 17.5 outs (-136): Even with last night's extra-inning battle, Boston's bullpen should be fresh given the recent all-star break. But it'll only stay fresh if the rotation provides some length, and Crawford has shown he can do that.
The right-hander has cashed this prop in eight straight outings, as well as 14 of 19 on the year. He's also pitched into the sixth inning or later 16 times.
With trends like that, I'm definitely a fan of this price point — even with the big, bad Dodgers looming.
Crawford's track record against current Dodgers hitters is short, but sweet. He has allowed a .304 SLG against them in 24 plate appearances, holding Shohei Ohtani hitless in four at-bats.
Rafael Devers over 0.5 RBI (+133): Lefty-on-lefty matchups aren't the best times to jump on a Devers prop, but I can make an exception in this matchup.
Devers is 7-for-17 with two doubles against Paxton. And if a sac fly opportunity is available, Devers wouldn't even need a hit to cash the bet.
The all-star third baseman has 29 RBI in his past 27 games for Boston. He's in the cleanup spot, so his RBI opportunities should be as fruitful as anyone's.
Picks made at 10:50 a.m. ET 07/21/2024.
