Fading Shohei Ohtani serves as the backbone for my +260 Sunday Night Baseball same-game parlay.
The pregame narrative: Ohtani's Los Angeles Dodgers host the Boston Red Sox, who'll turn to Kutter Crawford on the mound. Crawford has turned in several good outings lately, and I think that can continue tonight.
Check out the full Red Sox vs. Dodgers SGP picks for the July 21 matchup.
Red Sox vs. Dodgers SGP picks
Go to full Red Sox/Dodgers betting markets.
Parlay: Ohtani under 1.5 bases + Crawford over 4.5 Ks + Under 10.5 runs (+260)
Ohtani under 1.5 bases (-106): Getting the best of Ohtani is no small feat. He's a sizeable NL MVP favourite for a reason, after all.
But yes, I'm looking to fade Ohtani's bases prop despite the fact that he's hit the over in five straight games. Crawford's pitch mix, which features a heavy dose of cutters and sweepers, should give Ohtani problems.
The two-time MVP has a .213/.265/.361 slash line against cutters and sweepers this season, per Baseball Savant.
Ohtani is also 0-for-4 against Crawford so far. That's a tiny sample, but it backs up the point about Crawford's pitch mix being tough on Ohtani.
Other parlay picks
Crawford over 4.5 Ks (-195): If Crawford can strike out Ohtani, he'll be helping us in more ways than one.
Even if he doesn't I think the Boston righty can clear this modest line. His 8.8 K/9 doesn't jump off the page, but he has excelled as an innings eater this year — and that's often a good omen for K props.
Crawford has completed six-plus innings in 14 of 19 starts, and he's worked into the fifth or later in every start.
The Dodgers present a middle-of-the-road matchup, posting the 18th-highest K rate (21.3%) in the majors. If Crawford can get into the sixth inning — as he usually does — he'll give himself a great chance to cash this bet.
Last season, Crawford fanned seven Dodgers over just 5.0 innings.
Under 10.5 runs (-210): Last night, the Dodgers tied things up in the ninth inning and the teams combined for five of their 13 runs in extras. That's a fluky way to cash an over.
Prior to that game, Boston had gone under this mark in six straight. And L.A. had hit the under in five of six.
Crawford (6-7, 3.04 ERA) has only allowed one run in his past 20.0 innings of work. He's in a groove and should help keep scoring down.
Dodgers starter James Paxton (7-2, 4.38 ERA) hasn't been nearly as sharp recently, but the Red Sox haven't been very effective against left-handed pitching. Boston's 95 wRC+ against LHPs ranks 20th in the majors.
Picks as of 3:44 p.m. on 07/21/2024.
