Today's matchup between the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners is a big one for the AL West standings.
The pregame narrative: It's understandable if you're not glued to the standings just yet, but it's worth noting that the Astros did just pass the Mariners for the top spot in their division. Today, I'm banking 1.5 runs on Houston's side as part of a +300 same-game parlay.
Check out the full Astros vs. Mariners SGP picks for the July 21 matchup.
Astros vs. Mariners SGP picks
Go to full Astros/Mariners betting markets.
Parlay: Under 8.5 runs + Blanco over 5.5 Ks + Crawford under 1.5 bases + Astros +1.5 (+300)
Under 8.5 runs (-152): When you consider how poorly the Mariners' offence has performed this season, it's kind of amazing that the club has led the AL West most of the way.
Seattle has a 94 wRC+ (22nd) and averages just 3.8 runs per game (28th). The Mariners' pitching is elite, though, which helps explain why they're hitting the under in 56.8% of their games, per Team Rankings.
Houston has a strong offence, but it has often been quieted by Seattle's staff. These teams have gone under 8.5 runs in eight of nine matchups this year — averaging 5.4 total runs in their meetings.
Ronel Blanco (2.56 ERA) and Bryan Woo (2.45 ERA) are both having excellent seasons. This under has cashed in three of Woo's past four starts and in 11 of Blanco's past 13.
Other parlay picks
Ronel Blanco over 5.5 Ks (-200): Blanco doesn't strike out batters at a high rate, but that shouldn't scare bettors off of this pick.
What Blanco does do exceptionally well is find a way to work deep into games. He's pitched into the sixth or later in 16 of 18 starts so far.
That kind of volume should pair well with the Mariners' league-high K rate (28.1%). Seattle strikes out 10.3 times per game and has 69 more Ks than any other team.
Blanco nabbed six strikeouts over 6.0 innings against the Mariners when he faced them in May. If he sticks around for his usual workload, I think he can handle clearing this total.
J.P. Crawford under 1.5 bases (-225): Crawford is having a rough year, and it's probably past time for Seattle to consider moving him out of the leadoff spot.
The former first-round pick is batting .203 with a meagre .348 slugging percentage (17th-worst among 145 qualified hitters). And he's not trending in a positive direction.
Since June 10, Crawford has a .175/.283/.286 slash line. He has gone under 1.5 bases in 27 of those 33 games.
Being the leadoff man means he'll see as many offensive opportunities as anyone, but he's not doing anything with them right now.
Astros +1.5 (-245): Houston is scorching hot right now, winning 19 of its past 25 games. Seattle is slumping, having lost five in a row and 14 of 21.
Though the Mariners still hold a 5-4 edge over the Astros in the season series, Houston has covered this line in seven of nine matchups.
The Astros are also 14-4 on a +1.5 run line in Blanco's starts this season. They beat the Mariners, 5-3, with Blanco on the mound back in May.
Picks as of 1:35 p.m. on 07/21/2024.
