Tonight at Fenway Park, the Toronto Blue Jays face the Boston Red Sox for the rubber match of their three-game series.
The pregame narrative: Toronto snapped a seven-game losing streak thanks to a seven-run inning on Tuesday that led to a 9-4 win. This series has featured plenty of offence so far, which is expected to continue. I'm backing Rafael Devers' bases prop as my best bet.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Red Sox on June 26.
Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox
Go to full Blue Jays/Red Sox MLB betting markets.
Best bet: Devers over 1.5 bases (-115)
The over/under for tonight's matchup (9.5) is tied for the highest total in the majors. If this game is going to live up to its offensive expectations, Devers should be involved.
Devers has been a menace in this series, batting 5-for-8 with a double and two home runs. And rest assured, none of those hits were cheap.
Of Devers' seven balls in play over the past two games, six of them had an exit velocity above 105 mph, per Baseball Savant.
That's pretty common behaviour for a guy who ranks in the 91st percentile or better in hard-hit rate, barrel rate and average exit velocity. If that wasn't enough, Devers' xSLG (.557) sits in the 97th percentile as well.
The third baseman has never faced Blue Jays starter Yariel Rodriguez, but I still really like the matchup.
For one thing, the left-handed Devers has a platoon advantage against the right-handed Rodriguez. Devers has a 1.034 OPS against RHPs this year (compared to a .730 OPS vs. LHPs).
Also, Rodriguez has been a mess. Opponents are batting .304 against him and he has allowed 13 runs in 16.2 innings this year.
Key stat: In June, Devers has a .300/.359/.625 slash line in 21 games. His .625 SLG this month ranks 12th in MLB.
Quick pick
Over 5.5 runs - first five innings (+104): The F5 over/under is usually set at 4.5, but tonight's suspect pitching matchup has inflated it a bit. And at plus money, I'm still willing to take the plunge.
Rodriguez has been knocked around plenty and he's coming off his worst start. Last week in Cleveland, he allowed five runs over just 1.1 innings.
As for Boston starter Kutter Crawford, he's been in a slump over his past six outings. In that span, he has a 5.97 ERA and a .802 opponent OPS.
Toronto has cashed this F5 over in six of its past nine games. On the season, Boston has the highest F5 overs rate in MLB (47-33, 58.8%), according to ATS.io.
Picks made at 9:10 a.m. on 06/26/24.
